Sir Keir Starmer and Labor are more than twenty points ahead in the polls and he is heading to Downing Street with a huge majority. But so did Theresa May in 2017.
Unexpected things happen in campaigns. And they're more likely to happen to candidates who aren't natural campaigners - politicians who can't deliver stellar performances that can sway the electorate. In short, these types of candidates have no control.
Starmer is running campaigns that look more like May than Lord Cameron, let alone the great political geniuses of Tony Blair or Boris Johnson. As such, he is vulnerable to things that happen to him during the campaign - and ultimately to the impression that he simply doesn't have what it takes to become prime minister.
We live in a parliamentary system; people do not vote for a president, but for a prime minister and a cabinet. But elections are increasingly focused on the leaders. This is partly due to the leaders' debates, but it also reflects the parties' choices to centralize campaigns around a small number of issues that their leaders are seen to exemplify.
As such, this election will be between Rishi Sunak and Starmer. Policy always matters, but in the campaign character and image ultimately determine the end result.
There are three major known danger points for Starmer, where his character will be seriously tested. First, the launch of his campaign, which should happen soon. Secondly, the manifesto. Third, and most importantly, the televised debates.
Forget his speech at the party conference last fall; almost no one will have seen this. The public still knows little about him and these moments will be for many their first real introduction to the man expected to be their next Prime Minister.
People will tailor it. Can they imagine him leading the country into a crisis? Can they imagine him meeting the President of the United States? Will he be by their side when they are going through hard times?
The truth is that Starmer was not made for these events. His speech at the party conference was well received, but it was certainly not big 'retail politics'. Fundamentally he lacks emotion; he seems uncomfortable; he looks as if something could go wrong at any moment - and that he would be ashamed and devastated if it did.
A story is slowly emerging in the media that he is bland and boring - and has little of substance to offer. It's easy to imagine this story developing more seriously in the campaign if its big moments fail.
And this is what really hit Theresa May in 2017. Yes, the tide began to turn after a policy mistake - when the manifesto seemed to threaten high social care costs - but it was the idea that she was boring and robotic that really made people question whether she was the right choice. (It's also hard to imagine Labor making a similar policy mistake after May; all its manifestos are now totally risk-averse.)
It is clear that Sunak is cut from the same cloth as Starmer. It is also hardly built for major events. But the public thinks they know Sunak; it has been around for years and its idiosyncrasy is deeply ingrained in the minds of the electorate. Poor performances from Starmer will be a real disappointment.
His team knows these moments are crucial and will prepare accordingly. They will think that his speech at the party conference shows that he can deliver quite a performance when the time comes.
But the real dangers for Starmer actually come on the streets: in his interactions with ordinary voters and with those people the public loves and respects: teachers, nurses, small business owners and all the rest.
Johnson could get himself out of any difficult situation a few years ago. To a lesser extent, Blair and Cameron could do the same. But Starmer doesn't have the same easygoing charm; he cannot simply talk his way out of trouble or laugh away difficult moments.
It's easy to imagine an embarrassing mistake on the campaign trail that could lead to questions about his character and charisma. It's impossible to plan all this.
Paradoxically, Starmer could also fall victim to his huge poll lead during the campaign. It is likely that he is at the peak of his popularity. Even if he performs well all the time, there is invariably a shift towards the status quo in election campaigns, even if mild.
Disappointing performance and/or a misstep on the campaign trail, coupled with a shift to government, could easily create the perception that the energy is leaving his campaign and the momentum is elsewhere.
In recent months, swing voters have cautiously turned to Starmer in focus groups. As he appears to be the inevitable new Prime Minister, many people have become comfortable with the idea. Many of these voters think he's not that bad.
But for most of the past few years, those same swing voters have been outspoken in their hostility toward him. The same criticisms were constantly raised: that he only complained about the government and offered few solutions; and that he lacked charisma and leadership.
These concerns have not gone away, they have simply faded somewhat. They could easily return in this campaign.
At this point we need a massive reality check. Yes, Starmer is vulnerable; Yes, his lead is based primarily on irritation with the Tories rather than enthusiasm for his leadership and policy platform. But a twenty-point lead is a twenty-point lead. And irritation - anger even - among the Conservatives is a real force.
As such, Starmer goes into the election as favorite and will walk into Downing Street in July. Sunak will absolutely not be able to deliver on John Major's 1992 disruption. There are no meaningful parallels.
But the election will be brutal - it always is - and people will look hard at Starmer for the first time. He will undoubtedly face a difficult time and the polls could be narrowing. Perhaps the best the Tories can hope for is that Starmer, like May, walks into Downing Street as a weakened prime minister who will struggle to run the country, perhaps even run his own party.
James Frayne is the founder and partner of research firm Public First
