How Obama Overplayed His Tax Hand And Lost

By Susan Duclos
Barack Obama's handling of recent fiscal issues, including the fiscal cliff, debt limit and the recent sequester battles, shows that he took a mediocre hand, played it big, went all-in, and lost.
Taken individually, pundits would say he won one, lost one and came out even on a third, but taken together a picture forms of prior deal making in Washington forcing both Republicans lawmakers and Obama/Democrats into situations where one or the other had to acknowledge they had a losing hand, fold, get passed it and move on to the next issue.
Speaker of the House, John Boehner understood that, Barack Obama did not.
A quick look at recent events shows how Obama spent his political capital, drove his own polling numbers from a high of 57 percent approval in mid-December, to a low of 43 percent a little over two months later. Obama went from publicly attempting to browbeat Republicans to inviting them out on a dinner date.
Fiscal Cliff
Bush era tax cuts for all Americans were due to expire and taxes rates would be raised on everyone.
 Barack Obama took to the airwaves, insisted that the billions in tax revenue Republicans were offering, by way of eliminating loopholes and deductions, was not enough to for him to agree to a deal to prevent tax rates from going up on every American and unless Republicans agreed to allow tax rates to be increased for upper income Americans, then all tax cuts would expire and every single American would see an increase.
In other words, Barack Obama had the Republicans over a barrel, no question about it.
Boehner knew it, made sure the capitulation on the part of Republicans was very public so Americans would know they fought against raising taxes on anyone, but would allow them to be hiked on the upper income so that the rest of Americans would not see their tax rates jump.
In that deal, despite Obama speaking constantly of "balance," he received $41 of tax revenue for every $1 of spending cuts and the payroll tax holiday expired, so 77 percent of American workers saw their paychecks decrease and their taxes increase, even without their tax rates being hiked.
That was an unpleasant surprise since they were told by Obama that if Republicans agreed to tax hikes on upper income Americans, the rest would not suffer from higher taxes.
Debt Limit
The next budget battle, following right on the heels of the fiscal cliff, was supposed to be the debt limit, raising the ceiling on what Obama could borrow and spend. Republicans could not afford to to play hardball for spending cuts when the cost of no deal would cause America to default.
Boehner punted by suspending the debt limit until May. Took that issue off the table, took that hammer that Obama would have slammed over Republicans heads repeatedly, right out of Obama's hand.
Sequester
The sequester battle was once again the product of a prior deal with a deadline, but unlike the fiscal deal, there was no threat of tax rates automatically rising which benefited Obama's tax agenda, but instead when the deadline hit, automatic spending cuts were to go into effect, which benefited the Republicans spending cut agenda.
This time Republicans had Obama over the barrel.
Unlike Boehner who understood his losing hand in the fiscal cliff deal, Obama overplayed his hand on the sequester, doubled down and lost.
He traveled all across the country, on the taxpayers' dime, used the same "Republicans refuse to raises taxes" argument the public had just heard him make ad nauseam, for months, but this time Americans knew Obama had already gotten his taxes, with no balanced spending cuts.
Then Obama went further and started misrepresenting the consequences of the spending cuts about to go into effect to the point where even the mainstream media and fact checkers started calling him and his administration out on direct lies, six big Obama admin lies were splashed across the country.
Furthermore, Obama was unintentionally highlighting to the Republican base and fiscally conservative Independents, with every speech and rally, that Republicans were fighting for spending cuts, to which large majorities agreed must happen. He united more on the side of Republicans than those against them when his intent had been the opposite. Obama was at least partially responsible for the Republican base settling themselves solidly behind Boehner and supporting his refusal to cave to Obama on taxes.
In that same time frame, Obama's polling numbers were sinking with every public appearance, from 57 percent approval according to  CBS News in mid-December, with ABC News polls giving him 55 percent approval during that same week,  to 43 percent approval by the beginning of March according to Reuters and Quinnipiac showing his approval at 45 percent.
More than that, Obama actually made himself look weak by declaring he had been "forced" by the GOP to make spending cuts, when he could have easily come from a position of strength and reasonableness by doing the same thing Boehner did with the fiscal cliff deal and saying that rather than allowing all Americans to suffer he would back down.
Instead Obama decided to play the game politics of pain for political gain.
Topping the bad news for Obama, as he unnecessarily cancels White House Tours in a fit of pique, a leaked email from an Agriculture Department field officer becomes public, stating "I asked if there was any latitude in how the sequestration cuts related to aquaculture could be managed," and the response he received was "it is our opinion that however you manage that reduction, you need to make sure you are not contradicting what we said the impact would be."
Having massively overplayed his tax hand, now Obama, understanding he no longer has high approval ratings, has lost the spending fight very publicly, and will get no more tax increases  having to meet Republicans halfway with more spending cuts and/or entitlement reform, is now wining and dining Republicans in order to work out some type of "grand bargain."
Haven't we been here before?
 Related:
How the GOP Forced Obama's Hand- Politico 
Obama on his heels- Free Beacon