Game theory (GT) is the study of interactions, the analysis of happenings that do not depend solely on one decision. It is a strategic way of looking at things that gives a predictive framework for making the best choice, especially in situations where parties have competing interests and incomplete information about the state of things.
In other words, GT analyzes scenarios featuring multiple sides, where results technically hinge on what everyone selects to do. These models have most commonly been applied in political science and psychology. Nonetheless, we dive into GT’s implementation in card gambling entertainment, where they have also found a footing.
The Basics of Poker Game Theory & GTO
Game theory assists gamblers in creating mathematically inspired approaches that render them less vulnerable to undesirable results. The Game Theory Optimal Strategy (GTO) is the most popular of these, and explaining it is the most straightforward way to convey game theory as it relates to the world’s most famous card game.
In GTO, players balance actions to stop others from gaining an advantage. This is primarily a defensive strategy and an umbrella term for styles of play that strive not to display tendencies others can pick up on. A GTO player sticks to a plan that aims to work effectively in the long term. He is willing to sacrifice single hands for a more significant benefit down the line. That entails mixing bluffing/betting/calling/folding patterns so trends emerge that can only be spotted. For instance, a GTO card shark may bluff with weaker hands so that others can’t exploit them by constantly calling/folding.
The chief goal here is to find the right move frequency, using a mindset that dictates that randomizing is necessary but not to the point where it sizably endangers profitability. The objective is to exit a session with more money than one had when they sat to play.
Again, when it comes to GTO, it is vital to think of a range of possible hands, representing all the hands a player might hold/play in a session or part of it. By studying patterns, savvy gamblers can estimate their opponents’ range, and a balanced range is playing a variety of hands so that easy reading is not feasible.
A mixed strategy can mean three-betting, calling, or folding with the same hand. We advise that all players create their plans off the table and calculate the optimal frequencies for plays. For bluffing, some GTO fans divide the total number of bluffing bets by the sum of the value bets and the number of bluffing wagers to figure out their bluffing frequency.
Decision Trees & EV in Poker
These are two terms closely linked with GT. A decision tree is an infographic showing possible choices, highlighting the potential outcomes of each move. A node is a decision point, and branches represent consequences. Visualizing the options and outcomes in such a tree form helps for more precise analyses of complex situations. In poker, decision trees identify possible opportunities based on the hole and community cards. This mapping aids in assessing the best move, as it shows potential reactions, enabling adequate mental preparation for adjustments.
Suppose you have gambled remotely for a while. In that case, you have likely come across expected value, popularized by EV online casino bonus calculators and ones for promotions supplied by top trending poker websites. It comes from probability and evaluates the average outcome of a specific occurrence over many repetitions. You can check out formulas for calculating EV, and if one of these yields a positive value, that indicates that a bet is likely profitable over time.
Another thing that must be mentioned with GT is leveraging information asymmetry. Since in poker hands, there is an inherent imbalance of data for everyone, players must learn how to keenly observe opponents’ behaviors, interpret them, deduce likelihoods via logic/math, and after one, arm themselves with conclusions and create action plans. The implementation of deception to mislead is also a must.
GTO & Exploitive Play
Exploitative play refers to making tweaks to capitalize on opponents’ weaknesses. So, if someone frequently folds to large bets, a player adopting an exploitative strategy might begin to make larger bluffs. The goal here is to deviate from balanced play. When applied skillfully, this can produce high returns. That said, it carries risks, such as overuse backfiring, leading to predictability.
Discovering when to apply exploitative tactics and when to go for GTO is crucial to becoming a well-rounded player. That is not so clear-cut, so for many, the best way to go about things is to start with a GTO foundation and look to make calculated deviations when opportunities present themselves. Remember that an exploitative strategy might be more beneficial in cash games with a consistent group of players because one can more accurately read opponents. GTO offers more stability in tournaments due to the constantly changing player pool.
