UN peacekeepers patrol the North Kivu region, where democratic failures, lack of economic development, and a dangerous neighborhood have led to years of violence. (Photo: UN)
Recently I heard Jakkie Cilliers present his paper “The future of intrastate conflict in Africa: More violence or greater peace?” at The Center for Strategic and International Studies (co-authored by Julia Schunemann for the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa). I went to the event thinking the discussion was going to focus on current conflicts and tensions in Africa, and I was going to leave debating whether or not intrastate conflict will ruin the progress African countries have achieved. I was surprised to find that instead the discussion focused on drivers of intrastate conflict in Africa and even more surprised to find that a majority of the drivers are related to democratic and economic factors.
The authors have identified seven correlations associated with internal conflict:
- Poverty and Instability
- Transitions from Autocracy to Democracy
- A Democratic Deficit
- Unemployed or Underemployed Youthful Populations
- A Tendency toward Repeat Violence
- The “Bad Neighborhood” Effect
- Poor Governance
Excluding a tendency toward repeat violence, the other six correlations can be grouped into two larger categories, democracy and economy. In terms of democratic factors, the authors purport that it’s a lack of democracy and democratic governance that correlates with violence in Africa. Research shows that “[s]tates that experience stalled transitions from autocracy to democracy or adverse regime changes” are more likely to experience intrastate conflict.
In addition, countries that have a democratic deficit – where citizens’ demand for democracy is greater than what the current regime is willing to supply – can cause instability. The final correlation that relates to democracy is poor governance. The authors define good governance as the ability to provide domestic security, the capacity to effectively administer the territorial area, and the extent to which the government is perceived to be legitimate domestically.
What I read is: ensuring a country’s uninterrupted transition to democracy, when a demand for democracy exists, and assuring that democratic institutions are in place, will increase the likelihood for peace and stability in African countries.
The economic factors associated with increased instability range from poverty and unemployment, to weak institutions, to neighboring countries that are in conflict. The authors found that poor countries are more inclined to experience internal conflict, especially when combined with weak institutions. The poverty cycle continues when conflict dampens or destroys economic progress.
Another large issue in Africa, along with many other parts of the world, is the youth bulge. The researchers concluded that “falling economic development; high youth unemployment rates; limited education and training opportunities; and low access to participation in governance” is correlated with increased conflict among and by youth.
The “bad neighborhood” factor focuses on the negative effects of being in a region in conflict. While this factor is technically a geographic factor, the authors singled out a stark economic statistic associated with this scenario: Tanzania, for example, loses an estimated 0.7% of GDP every year for each neighbor in conflict.
A nation cannot change who its neighbors are, but it is obviously in the best interest of a state to not ignore the prospects of regional economic development to stave off outside effects that can lead to internal conflict. Jakkie stated in his verbal comments that it is the awareness of deprivation that leads to violence, so for peace to thrive in Africa, people need a viable means to escape poverty. Job creation and strong institutions that support economic growth internally and regionally are two ways to ensure that African countries maintain stability.
CIPE is committed to democratic development through private enterprise and market-oriented reform. CIPE’s programs have an intertwined approach to development by helping to build market-oriented and democratic institutions simultaneously. According to Cilliers and Schunemann, this is primarily what is needed to prevent more violence in Africa. While CIPE’s mission does not include the prevention of conflict, according to this research, CIPE’s programs are helping to create more stable countries in Africa.
Kristen Sutara is Executive Assistant for Global Programs and the Program Coordination Unit at CIPE.
