(This recently appeared, slightly edited, as a commentary in the Albany Times-Union)
There is a tide in the affairs of men . . .
I quoted that Shakespeare line in 2011 to my high-schooler daughter, who was enthralled by events in Egypt. I said it in judging that Mubarak was through. And so he was. And she was put on a path leading to life and work in Jordan, Afghanistan, Iraq, and now London.
Was that her inevitable destiny?
In recent months I’ve quoted Shakespeare’s line on my blog. First when it appeared an implacable tide of event after event favored Trump. Then when a force of history seemed to tell President Biden his campaign was over. His debate performance as bad as could be.
So was his renunciation inevitable? There is a tide, yet people have a say in their affairs, and there’s always an ineffable complex of factors. I believed Biden’s standing down would not only be best for the nation and world, but for him personally. He didn’t see it that way — until he did. But for all the intelligence and good character behind that decision, it didn’t have to happen.
I proved correct that a tide of history was dooming Mubarak. Yet life is complicated, even chaotic, it never follows a script. How exactly were Bangladeshis, quite suddenly in August, able to get rid of their authoritarian ruler? While Venezuelans can’t unhorse that criminal Maduro; war continues in Myanmar between the army and the public; and for Iranians to dethrone their cruel rulers seems impossible. But things can look impossible until they happen.
And nothing is inevitable. It always depends on people’s choices; and even upon things outside of human agency. Sheer contingency, random factors, loom large. Like Egyptian events triggering my daughter’s career. And in my own life: when I stopped by my law school for some post-graduation paperwork and noticed on a bulletin board a card about a job opening. When I walked down Hudson Avenue at one particular moment and spotted a girl.
No, she wasn’t the one. But launched a chain of improbable events that, three girls and eighteen years later, brought my daughter into being.
Then there’s Dr. King’s line that the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice. That implies some cosmic force, surely a false notion. Instead, again, it’s a matter of our choices, and unpredictable contingency. And yet the great sweep of history does show vast progress, not only in our material circumstances, but morally. In fact the two are closely linked. Being freed from the brutality of a harsh struggle for survival enables the better angels of our nature to flourish.
Kamala Harris’s winning now feels like it should be inevitable — after the two conventions, one a joyous celebration of virtue, the other dark and divisive. How could anyone vote for that?
But we know they can. We don’t always do what’s right. Sometimes do very bad things. Not even knowing they’re bad. Indeed, all history’s worst atrocities were perpetrated by people feeling righteous.
The optimist in me wants to believe the arc of history cannot take such a perversely backward lurch. But the Universe doesn’t care what I want.
