Debate Magazine

Here We Go, the Mid-cycle Wobble...

Posted on the 03 August 2016 by Markwadsworth @Mark_Wadsworth

As is easily observed, land prices/bank lending goes in 18 year-cycles, there is a credit crunch and associated recession every 18 years and a wobble after 11 which is soon forgotten.
The last credit crunch started in 2007-08, so we'd expect the mid-cycle wobble in 2018-19, i.e. in about 2 years' time.
Here are the first signs:
London Luxury House Prices Keep Falling After Brexit Vote (they blame all bad news on "Brexit").
NB - in the UK, every higher house prices are seen as A Good Thing and voters will re-elect any government that kept them going higher.
Home ownership falling in major English cities, says think tank
"What we particularly have seen since 2002-03 is that incomes simply haven't kept pace with house prices, so it's not just that house prices have gone up. We had access to lots of relatively easy credit and the position we're in now is that credit has been turned off.
"We have this sense now that house prices have become detached from people's earnings ... and we no longer have the route through 100% mortgages and the like for getting on to the housing ladder."

the flaws in the Bank of England’s stress testing programme
The report's release comes as Europe faces a renewed banking crisis. There is already a major crisis in Italy and mounting concerns about Deutsche Bank, the biggest bank in Europe and recently described by the International Monetary Fund as the most systemically dangerous bank in the world.
Rate cut 'foregone conclusion' as economy slows sharply
They'll paper over the cracks and reinstate the proper land price/credit bubble - by depressing interest rates if nothing else - then sit back and watch the money print itself until next massive credit crunch and associated land-owner and bank bailouts etc, currently pencilled in for 2025-26.
UPDATE: Lola submits this rather more technical article: The FOMC Butterfly that Will Ruin the World

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