Goal-scorers remains biggest need
The Montreal Canadiens only substantial move on "deadline day" was to move Andrei Kostitsyn and his annual output of 20 to 25 goals per-season. Looking toward next season, the Habs remain an offensively-starved hockey team. In a league that normally requires a team to have at least ten 10-goal scorers and two 30-plus goal-scorers to all but guarantee a playoff berth, the Habs currently have only nine potential 10-goal scorers, and only Max Pacioretty with an above-average chance of scoring 30-goals.
My article on ten and thirty-goal scorers available here
After 62 games, the Canadiens have the nineteenth-ranked goal differential in the league (-12). They also have the nineteenth-ranked offense at 2.54 goals per-game, and the twelfth-ranked defense at 2.65 goals-against per-game. They are the fifteenth-ranked team five-on-five, and still have the top-ranked penalty-killing unit.
The season has been lost for a number of reasons. The two largest being an under-achieving powerplay; that currently sits twenty-ninth in the league, and a shootout record of 3 wins, 8 losses.
A playoff spot next season is contingent on the Canadiens ability to bring in offensive-help. Carey Price gives the team what they need in goal; a goalie that consistently produces a save percentage north of .915. This save percentage is key, as it allows a team to give up an average of 30 shots per game and still give up only 210 goals on the season; only 5 teams in the last 4 seasons have given up less than 210 goals and not made the playoffs.
In order for a team to earn a playoff-challenging point-total of 94 during an 82-game schedule it needs to earn an average of 1.15 points per-game. In the last four seasons the average amount of goals needed by a team to earn one point is 2.48. This means that in order for a team to earn 94 points they need to score an average of (1.15 x 2.48) 2.85 goals per-game, for a total of 234 goals.
Two 30-goal scorers will produce 60 goals, while 8 other players scoring more than 10-goals each should produce an average of 15 goals. This would give a team 180 goals from ten players, leaving 52 goals to be scored by the 12 other players on the roster (factoring in injuries); an average of 4 goals each.
Current players on the Canadiens roster who are under contract next season, and have already scored at a pace in the NHL equalling 30 goals over an 82-game schedule include Max Pacioretty (this season), Erik Cole, Tomas Plekanec, Rene Bourque, and Brian Gionta. If we look at factors such as age, injuries, shooting percentage, and number of seasons since a 30-goal pace was achieved, we find the only probable option for 30-goals next season is Pacioretty. Leaving Cole, Plekanec, Bourque, and Gionta as four of the Habs potential 10-goal scorers, leaving the need for five more 10-goal scorers.
In turn, this leaves Lars Eller, PK Subban, Andrei Markov, and recent arrival Blake Geoffrion as the only players under contract for next season who have scored at a pace in the NHL equalling 10-goals over an 82-game season.
Using this logic, and creating a plan to ensure at least a playoff spot next season, the Canadiens are short one 30-goal scorer next season, as well as offensive-depth to protect against any injuries to the above goal-scorers. Using the off-season to address these needs is the only way to ensure a playoff spot next season. If the plan does not consist of these main objectives, than the only other realistic option may just be a complete rebuild.
