Player and team ratios represent the number of successful plays each player produces for every 1 failed play. The higher the ratio the better the performance. Separating player and team ratios based on whether a team produced more scoring-chances, or fewer scoring-chances than the opposition allows us to test whether team success translates into higher ratios; and vise versa. This not only allows us to test the system, it also allows us to see which players are impacting the game; and at what level.
Comparing games depending on scoring-chances rather than wins and losses allows us to take goaltending out of the equation; thereby putting the emphasis on something that the skaters included here control directly through their own performance.
All events tracked in all 3 zones are included in the calculation of a player's ratio. A list of all events tracked can be found here. Each event tracked is entered into the database as either successful or failed. The total number of events tracked for each player depends on ice-time, while the total number of events per-team for each game usually lands in and around 1200.
Every Montreal Canadiens game this season has been tracked; giving me 118,000+ points of data for this season alone.
The green line within each graph shows each player's average ratio during that period that was produced during games where the Montreal Canadiens out chanced their opponent at even-strength. The red line in each graph shows each player's average ratio during games where the Habs where out chanced by their opponent at even-strength.
As a team, the Canadiens produced an average even-strength ratio of 2.34 successful plays for every 1 failed play during games prior to the Olympics where they out chanced the opposition at even-strength, while producing a ratio of 2.24 during games where they were out chanced.
Habs defensemen averaged 2.88 successful plays for every 1 failed play when the team out chanced the opposition, while producing a ratio of 2.81 when they were out chanced.
Montreal centres actually produced a better ratio during games when the Habs were out chanced. They had an average ratio of 2.16 in games where they out chanced their opponents at ES, and had a ratio of 2.23 when they were out chanced.
Habs wingers had a substantially-better ratio when the team out chanced the opponent than they did when they were out chanced. Montreal wingers had a ratio of 1.99 successful plays per-failed plays when they out chanced the opposition, while having a ratio of 1.79 when out chanced.
As a team, the Canadiens produced an average even-strength ratio of 2.39 successful plays for every 1 failed play during games after to the Olympics where they out chanced the opposition at even-strength, while producing a ratio of 2.28 during games where they were out chanced.
Habs defensemen averaged 2.78 successful plays for every 1 failed play when the team out chanced the opposition, while producing a ratio of 2.76 when they were out chanced.
Montreal centres actually produced a better ratio during games when the Habs were out chanced. They had an average ratio of 2.23 in games where they out chanced their opponents at ES, and had a ratio of 2.26 when they were out chanced.
Habs wingers had a substantially-better ratio when the team out chanced the opponent than they did when they were out chanced. Montreal wingers had a ratio of 2.17 successful plays per-failed plays when they out chanced the opposition, while having a ratio of 1.89 when out chanced.
As a team, the Canadiens produced an average even-strength ratio of 2.43 successful plays for every 1 failed play during playoff games where they out chanced the opposition at even-strength, while producing a ratio of 2.22 during games where they were out chanced.
Habs defensemen averaged 2.98 successful plays for every 1 failed play when the team out chanced the opposition, while producing a ratio of 2.77 when they were out chanced.
Montreal centres were able to produce a better ratio during playoff games when the Habs out chanced the opposition. They had an average ratio of 2.29 in games where they out chanced their opponents at ES, and had a ratio of 2.25 when they were out chanced.
Habs wingers had a substantially-better ratio when the team out chanced the opponent than they did when they were out chanced. Montreal wingers had a ratio of 2.15 successful plays per-failed plays when they out chanced the opposition, while having a ratio of 1.87 when out chanced.
The direct and definitive link between team performance and individual player ratios demonstrated here tells us that the right puck-possession events are being tracked. It also indicates that a team consisting of players who produce higher, rather than low ratios within this system would (in theory) allow a team to out chance their opposition at even-strength.
Obviously, ratios alone won't tell us the whole story. The value of this system is in the incredible amount of data gathered by tracking upwards of 1200 individual puck-possession events per-game.
