The Republican Party did very poorly in the last election with minority groups -- losing each of them by more than 70%. The national leaders of that party know they cannot continue to lose this badly among all of these groups and remain a viable party in the future, because the percentage of whites in the voting electorate falls a couple of percentage points with each passing presidential election.Many of those GOP leaders decided there was one group they could reach out to -- Hispanics, the fastest growing minority group in the United States. Significant portions of this group have supported Republicans in the past (such as George Bush, who got 44% of the Hispanic vote). And they thought they knew how to do it -- temper there anti-immigrant rhetoric and support an immigration reform bill that offers undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship.
Immigration reform is an important issue for the Hispanic community, and refusing to support immigration reform is a sure way to lose most of their votes in the future. And as a recent Quinnipiac Poll (taken on May 27th and 28th of 1,419 registered voters nationwide -- with a margin of error of only 2.6 points) shows, immigration reform is not just popular with Hispanics. It is also popular with the American public at large, with 54% favoring reform with a path to citizenship. And as the chart above shows, that support cuts across lines of sex, race, income, and age.
That would make it seem like a no-brainer that support for immigration reform is just good politics. But the GOP has a problem -- the teabaggers, who have seized control of the GOP in many states and sent too many of their number to Congress. And these people are not ready to shed their racism and xenophobia. This same poll shows one of the only groups opposing immigration reform with a path to citizenship is the Republican base -- where only 39% support such reform. Another 15% supports reform without a path to citizenship, and 40% still wants to deport all undocumented immigrants.
This has made the teabaggers in Congress bolder, and it is scaring the few moderate Republicans there (who fear they could lose a primary battle if they vote for reform). It is becoming more obvious with each passing day that immigration reform will probably be filibustered in the Senate, and even if it passes there it stands a very poor chance of passing in the GOP-dominated House of Representatives.
And that is not just my opinion. That is the opinion of a huge majority of the American people. This same poll shows that while 54% of U.S. voters support immigration reform, a whopping 71% thinks the reform will not be able to get through the Congress. Only 24% think it has a chance of passing.
The GOP had a golden opportunity here to not only reach out to Hispanics, but to pass a bill supported by the majority of Americans. But they are poised to blow that opportunity. Their base just will not let them move past their discriminatory policies, and once again become a mainstream party.
