Tonight is the night. I’ve seen every film (and probably every TV show), even if I haven’t gotten to my review. So, here are my thoughts, fully informed, on the race.
Best Drama: Nominees- The Brutalist, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Dune Part II, The Nickel Boys, and September 5
Who I Would Vote For: All of these are exceptional films. My favorite film of 2024 never had a chance. The biggest and most notable snub here was Sing Sing, which I would swap for either A Complete Unknown or Dune Part II, just personally. Conclave is one of my favorite films, even though it doesn’t feel like a Best Picture winner. it feels like a winner we’d reflect back on, thinking something else should win. September 5 is seen as the underdog here, as this is its only nomination. Still, you could do worse than a single nomination in Best Picture. If I was voting, my soul tells me that The Brutalist will stand the test of time, but my heart is with Conclave.
My Vote: Conclave
Who Will Win: The Brutalist is really trying a late stage game into the race. A24 held back screeners. It wasn’t even eligible for one fo my critics groups because they never met the screening requirement. However, there are only about 300 voting Globe members, and I think A24 got this film in front of all of them. For the Hollywood Foreign Press, it even has a global feel, as the movie centers on an immigrant new to America right out of WWII.
Who Will Win: The Brutalist
Drama Actress: Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Kate Winslet (Lee), and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door).
Who I Would Vote For: Sony Pictures Classics is backing both Torres and Swinton in this category. Neither will win. Kate Winslet has been getting an odd groundswell for a movie that made no impact domestically, but did well overseas. I love that Pamela Anderson has an actual nomination for acting. This category looks like it is Jolie versus Kidman. Jolie recently had her entire movie ignored by the BAFTA’s, who release a shortlist for all categories ahead of their nominations. That’s huge. They actually picked outliers like Marissa Abella from Back To Black over Jolie. That is a giant slap in her face. With a different voting body, how will the Glboes fare? I have the same problem with basically everyone in this category. Jolie, Kidman, Winslet, and Swinton are all good, but no one delivered a career best. Comedy Actress is way more stacked. But one woman did deliver a knockout, and it is definitively the performance of her career.
My Vote: Pamela Anderson (The last Showgirl)
Who Will Win: Neither Jolie, Kidman, or Winslet have these big films nominated in multiple categories. No one here does. Jolie needs this win really fucking bad. A loss here, after finding out she won’t get a BAFTA nomination, could kill her Oscar campaign. I think we might be in for a surprise. Before the shortlist, I would have said Jolie.
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet (Lee)
Drama Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Coleman Domingo (Sing Sing), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Daniel Craig (Queer).
Who I Would Vote For: Really great work here. Your Oscar five is here, unless Hugh grant can work some magic. My top two actor performances got ignored this year. Chalamet has been so reliably good, and he’s really young. The Globes used to welcome stars of tomorrow. The new globes? They seem to want to be an Oscar precursor. They will take this race very seriously. It really is Brody vs Chalamet. Here, the drama about giving Brody a second Oscar, when he will be likely nominated against a host of men who have never won, is not a Globe problem. That is an Oscar voter quandary. For my money, I actually was more impressed with Chalamet, though I think Brody is winning.
My Vote: Timothee Chalamet (A complete Unknown)
Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Best Comedy: Anora, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Substance, A Real Pain, Challengers
Who I Would Bote For: Emilia Perez has not had quite the reception with audiences, and is starting to feel like this industry thing. A win here, if it doesn’t trend into the Top 10 on Netflix (finally), would just highlight how little audiences care. Obviously, audiences have voted with their money for Wicked. By a lot. The Substance has a lot of fans, hoping for a surprise. Wicked and The Substance are both in my Top 5, so I could go either way. The big threat is Anora, the Cannes darling, and perceived front runner. But, I think that might be just perception.
Who I Would Vote For, And Who Will Win: Wicked
Comedy Actress: Mikey Madison (Anora), Carla Sofia Gazcon (Emilia Perez), Demi Moore (The Substance), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Zendaya (Challengers), and Amy Adam’s (Night Bitch).
Six terrific performances. i didn’t really have full access to Emilia Perez, so i got the singing from Gazcon. While she stands to make history by winning as a transgender actress, she has a lot to fight to get there. Notably, Mikey Madison, the current front runner for the Oscar. Can anyone beat Mikey? I don’t think so, but someone else very much has my vote.
My vote: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Will Win: Mikey Madison (Anora)
Comedy Actor: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man), Glen Powell (Hitman), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds Of Kindness)
Who I Would Vote For: While he was good, no one expected Plemons to even be here. Same could be said for LaBelle. Their awards journey ends here. As nominees. Sebastian Stan and Glen Powell likely aren’t moving forward into the SAG, BAFTA, or Oscar race either. Jesse Eisenberg hasn’t been getting nearly the love that his co-star has been getting. That leaves one man. Much like Jolie needs a win, Grant needs a win to get an Oscar nomination. If he can’t beat five guys who aren’t considered strong contenders for the nomination, then he isn’t either. Grant winning would give him likely a strong package, as he will probably also get nominated at BAFTA. Notably, no one else in this race is shortlisted at BAFTA. This is Grant’s to lose.
My Vote: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real pain)
Will Win: Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez)
The first official match between Saldana and Grande. No one else has a shot. This race is between two musical supporting actresses. Here, this is the Hollywood foreign presss, and I think in a really REALLy tight race, that gives one person the edge. However, I really hate that someone got snubbed here, just like Marianne Jean Baptiste deserved a Drama Actress nod. I’d probably write in Danielle Detweiler for The Piano Lesson, but with her not getting a Globe, or even a BAFTA shortlist, she would need to win SAG at this point to have a shot.
My vote: Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Will Win: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator 2) Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
It seems like every year, there is one actor who sweeps their race. That definitely won’t be supporting actress, as I’m sure those ladies will bounce around. Mikey might lose BAFTA to baptiste or Winslet. I could see Brody losing an award to Chalamet. but, especially without Clarence Macklin here to have his heart strings pulling for a win, I don’t know who beats Culkin. He’s an unstoppable force this season, and rightly so.
My Vote, and Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Director: Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbett (The Brutalist), Jacques Audilard (Emilia Perez), Edward Burger (Conclave), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), and Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine Is Light)
Baker is the only American director, I believe. The Hollywood Foreign PRess could really take a big swing here. One film is not among the 12 nominated in Drama/Comedy, so we can rule that out. Also, it has no audio description. The other five, I could see anyone but burger winning. Part of me says Corbett, because he made a movie that looks like 50M for 8M, but I think we might get a surprise. Am I wish-dicting or predicting?
My Vote and Who Will Win: Coralei Farajat (The Substance)
Other Predictions:
Screenplay: Sean Baker (Anora)
Animated Feature: The Wild Robot
International Film: Emilia Perez
Score: The Brutalist
Song: Kiss The Sky from The Wild Robot
Popular Film: Wicked
