The centre-right Christian Democratic Union has won a resounding 41.5% of the vote in Germany’s federal elections. Under the system of proportional representation (although parties winning under 5% of the vote are not represented in the German parliament), this leaves the CDU just five seats short of an overall majority- a landslide victory in German terms. It is widely felt that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s consensual political approach and personal popularity are, together with Germany’s strong economy, responsible for the surprisingly emphatic electoral swing.
The three other parties represented in the parliament are the Social Democrats (historically the leaders of any centre-left government), the Greens and the former-communist Left Party. Typically for the left, these groups are able to unite and defeat the right, but are too divided to do so. The Social Democrats (SPD) made cast-iron guarantees to the electorate that it would not share power with the Left Party, calculating that any ambiguity on that point would cost the broad left ‘bloc’ more seats than it would gain by adding the Left Party. That is unfortunate, given that in many other European states, communists have propped up social democratic governments almost unconditionally. However, the SPD has burnt that particular bridge, and should respect the promise they made to the German people. Thus they commit themselves to Opposition until at least 2017.
Or do they? Given that Merkel lacks a majority, she will need the support of either the SPD in a ‘Grand Coalition’ or the Greens in a Surreal Alternative Universe. The Greens, much like their American, Australian or British equivalents, would never contemplate working with a rightwing government, so that isn’t an option. Yet the ‘Grand Coalition’ idea is a uniquely Continental one which might be unthinkable to us: can you imagine a Democrat-Republican or Labour-Conservative pact? They’d be absolute disasters. Unfortunately, there is growing public pressure on the SPD to bury their ideology and their identity in a conservative-dominated coalition.
The SPD would be in a weak position in coalition talks, and would be unable to gain significant concessions on matters of investment in public services, social liberalism or the national future. While they are accountable for the actions of a government they can barely influence, the country would have to look to the Greens for anything resembling opposition. In other words, there’s little reason for the SPD to support the CDU. They should not enter any coalition.
The best outcome would be for the CDU to form a minority government, free to decide on its own legislative programme but dependent on a small group of outside supporters for every bill on a case-by-case basis. This allows the left to force through progressive legislation of a kind whilst honouring the wishes of the electorate. Sadly, I think the outcome will not be this equitable.
Footnote:
The centre-right Free Democrats, who until now have governed in coalition with the CDU, have lost their place in parliament for the first time in its history. I doubt many will mourn the loss of the most useless, uninspiring and fruitless political movements in history.
