Efforts were made to resolve the hostage situation in Gaza through negotiations before the start of Ramadan, some progress was made, but no agreement was reached and none of the kidnapped were recovered. The release of the prisoners by force of arms produced almost as bad a result, only one body was managed to be recovered.
The situation has to be understood as far as Hamas is concerned, it is the terrorist organization’s last trump card. From Israel’s point of view, the concern is that a prolonged cease-fire would allow Hamas’s terror to continue while the organization is able to replenish its stocks, especially since Israel is in any case increasing humanitarian aid to Gaza to the numbers that prevailed before the war. COGAT has reported that 419 aid trucks arrived in Gaza on April 9, 2024 – the largest number of trucks in one day since the war began. The previous record was reached the day before with 322 trucks.
There are conflicting reports coming out of Cairo about a possible hostage release/prisoner swap deal between Israel and Hamas. The United States has taken a meaningful lead and is putting heavy pressure on brokers. The US proposal is far-reaching; it includes a very broad mandate… All the elements are there – IDF forces and the return of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip.” Defense Secretary Gallant has stated: “We are prepared to make difficult decisions to get the hostages back. I believe that we are at a good stage for an agreement.”
Hamas officials, meanwhile, told international media that the current proposals still fell well short of their minimum requirements. A senior Hamas official, Ali Baraka, said: “We reject the latest Israeli proposals that were communicated to us by the Egyptian side. The Politburo met today and decided this.” Hamas has also stated that the obstacle to the agreement is that Hamas does not have in its possession the 40 women, children, over 50 years old or wounded persons presented by Israel for the exchange of prisoners. This may indicate that more hostages than expected are already dead or in the possession of, for example, the PIJ (Islamic Jihad) organization.
When 133 hostages were kidnapped, it is feared that only half are still alive. The basic formula of the deal presented during the negotiations is believed to include the release of approximately 40 Israelis from Hamas in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has once again come under pressure from the far-right members of his coalition. Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir both complained that the broader Security Cabinet had been sidelined and that crucial decisions on flexibility for Israeli negotiators and other aspects of the war were made only by the narrower War Cabinet.
Israel’s military withdrawal from the southern parts of Gaza can be interpreted as a concrete demonstration of its flexibility and openness to the hostage agreement. It may be about this or the rest of the forces during the ceasefire, however, the operation in Rafah seems likely, for example, after the ceasefire – according to some estimates, within 1-2 months.
One IDF infantry brigade is still stationed along the east-west corridor blocking access to the north. Defense Secretary Gallant stated: “The troop withdrawal from Khan Younis was carried out when Hamas ceased to be a military force in the city… The achievements of the IDF Division 98 and its units are very impressive. They have eliminated terrorists and destroyed terrorist targets such as warehouses, weapons, headquarters, communication centers and more. Their actions made it possible for Hamas to disintegrate as a functioning military unit in this region.”
The withdrawal of troops will now facilitate the return of Gazans who fled to Rafah to Khan Yunis.
Talks could be slowed by the fact that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s three sons – Hazem, Amir and Mohammad – were killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday [10/04/2024], the Palestinian Islamist group and Haniyeh’s family said. The Israeli military confirmed the attack and described the three boys as operatives of the armed wing of Hamas. Haniyeh has 13 children in total.
Ismail Haniyeh learned of the killing of his children while visiting wounded Palestinians who were taken to Doha for treatment. Attention was attracted by the video of Haniyeh’s relatively emotionless reaction to the information, Haniyeh simply stated “May God be merciful to them” and immediately continued her visit. The explanation for the reaction has been considered to be the valued importance of martyrs in the local culture.
At the same time as the hostage agreement, Israel is preparing for a retaliatory attack by Iran due to the recent killing of a general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. According to estimates, the attack will not take place directly from Iran, but from Syria, Lebanon or Yemen. Possible Israeli casualties again affect the strength of the counterattack and the chosen targets.
The source is, for example, BICOM
The article first appeared in the online publication Ariel-Israeli Suomeksi
