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End of the Bull Market. I Will Return in 2016.

Posted on the 11 June 2014 by Souljester @souljester618
Trust thyself: every heart vibrates to that iron string. Accept the place the divine providence has found for you, the society of your contemporaries, the connection of events. Great men have always done so, and confided themselves childlike to the genius of their age, betraying their perception that the absolutely trustworthy was seated at their heart, working through their hands, predominating in all their being. And we are now men, and must accept in the highest mind the same transcendent destiny; and not minors and invalids in a protected corner, not cowards fleeing before a revolution, but guides, redeemers, and benefactors, obeying the Almighty effort, and advancing on Chaos and the Dark. -Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self Reliance ********

I have enjoyed my time away from posting. This is a good time for me to take some permanent time off. I will return in 2016. The evidence of a significant top is too overwhelming here. That it is happening where the bear market should resume from a Fibonacci perspective should not be ignored.  I forecast that the bull market has been on its last legs. I started by identifying the top in small caps to within a fraction of 1 point. March 4 Top Call Update. On May 29, I identified the topping Fibonacci resistance in large caps. End of the Bull Market.  The S&P 500 has spiked through its long term resistance area briefly in the last week or so, but the Dow has not. I identified the ideal time and price and noted the Dow level. Ideal Time and Price.  Currently, we have hit the time window. We did not quite hit the price window. Nothing really changes.  The Dow either has failed or will fail in the 17,150 area is my forecast on the chart update noted in the Ideal Time and Price post. 

The market failing at the 138.2 extension (Dow 17,150) is bearish. Such a failure projects a retrace of the 2009 lows and a likely lower low below that low.   What most do not realize is that the top in 2011 was the return of the bear market. However, it morphed into a triangle. This is shown on the chart below and has been the thesis of the Long Term Bull Market versus Bear Market scenarios that I have been talking about on this blog. I had last year hoped that we would get a back test of the breakout and confirm the Bull Scenario, but the market went into bubble mode instead, flying up to its Fibonacci resistance.   End of the Bull Market.  I will return in 2016.
This triangle in the above chart does not show up well on large caps (though it is there) because they are more sensitive to the dollar manipulation. It does show up on small caps charts, however. The import of this triangle is it is likely a B wave in an ABC up. That means the market should end at the 138.2 as ABCs are corrective. That is why the extreme readings at the Fibonacci resistance we are seeing right now are so important here. We will very very likely not do another triangle.  When we break the 2012 low that will be additional corroboration that this is just been a corrective wave in an ongoing larger bearish corrective pattern as outlined in the posts linked to this post. The only Bull Scenario under this triangle thesis is that the triangle was the end of a complex correction and the new bull began in 2012. That has been the competing bull market scenario. This Fibonacci resistance and the readings we are seeing is telling me that the Bear Scenario is the primary scenario here. 
There is always a bear path and a bull path. We cannot know which path the future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions. Take care, Peace, Om, SoulJester

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