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Egypt Election Q and A

Posted on the 30 November 2011 by Warigia @WarigiaBowman
Here are some good resources on the Egyptian election
Carnegie Endowment Electing a New Egypt.
Arabist Egyptian Election Page
Al Jazeera Infographic on Egyptian Elections 
New York Times Revolution and Aftermath
Here is a review of the basics:
There are 27 Governorates in Egypt. Egypt has a population of 80 million. 50 million persons are eligible to vote. Expatriates in possession of an Egyptian passport can vote at their local consulate.
The People's Assembly elections will be held on November 28th-29th (Kafr El Sheikh, Port Said, Damietta, Cairo, Helwan, Alexandria) December 14, 2011, (Beni Suef, Giza, Ismailiya, Beheira, Suez, Sohag Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Sharqiya, Menoufiya) and finally January 3, 2012 (Marsa Matrouh, Minya. New Valley, North Sinai, South Sinai). Full results for the lower house will likely be announced after January.
The Shura Council elections will be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence.
The date of the Presidential election has not yet been decided.
The election is a mixture of a closed list system (2/3), and a first past the post single winner system (1/3). Here is my explanation of that system. The Book of Lists
I have just updated my list of which parties are running women in large numbers or high positions. Please take a look. Which Egyptian parties represent women?
Furthermore, each list must contain individuals certified as either "workers" or "farmers," a holdover from the Nasserist era.
Predictions: I predict (Just a hunch. Just a gamble)
  • Muslim Brotherhood will win 30%  of the seats in the People's Assembly. 
  • El Adl will also be a big winner, taking about 15% of seats.
  • I expect all Copts and many Muslim liberals and leftists to vote for the Egyptian Bloc, or the Revolution Continues Bloc. Those groups should win about 15% each. 
  • The remaining seats will be divided between Al Nour, Wasat, El Wafd, and a variety of other parties and individuals.

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