They say it's when times are tough that you discover who your true friends are, and Eddie Howe is about to discover just how much support he gets at Newcastle United from the club's Saudi Arabian owners.
We are likely to learn more about what this project, led by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), is about in the next four to six weeks than we have in the 26 months since the takeover was confirmed by the Premier League.
Will Newcastle become just another English club with ambitious owners who fire a manager at the first sign of a dip? Will PIF make the same kind of knee-jerk boardroom decisions that characterize other Premier League newcomers and make Howe the scapegoat for a dip in results and form?
Or is this the carefully thought-out long-term growth plan we were told, led by an ownership group that claimed to have already anticipated the bumps in the road that would come with the transformation of a club perpetually haunted by the fear of relegation to a consistent European club. contenders?
What does Howe's future hold?
Howe has done a fantastic job since being appointed in November 2021. He saved the club from relegation in his first season and finished in the top four in his second season. So far he has far exceeded expectations.
As a result, the 46-year-old has a lot of goodwill in the bank among supporters and, apart from a few typically rabid comments on social media, retains the full support of the fanbase. There is no one seriously claiming that he is under pressure, let alone calling for him to be fired.
However, for the first time since his appointment, Howe is going through a really bad period. Newcastle have lost eight of their last 12 games in all competitions. After two years of praise and praise, there is now fear and a hint of division on Tyneside.
Newcastle were knocked out of Europe after a 2-1 home defeat to AC Milan in the Champions League earlier this month, meaning they finished bottom of their group.
The story continues
A week later they somehow managed to lose the Carabao Cup quarter-final to Chelsea on penalties, despite winning with just two minutes of stoppage time to play, following a blunder from their previously talismanic captain Kieran Trippier .
Trippier's decline in form (he was also guilty of costly mistakes in the defeats to Everton and Tottenham Hotspur) has been symbolic of a team that has lost too many of the things that made it successful.
Consecutive defeats to Luton Town and Nottingham Forest have led to criticism of Howe's decision-making and team selection for the first time. So far, a crippling injury list has provided relief, but patience is not infinite. And Newcastle's fixture list for January is brutal.
They travel to Liverpool on New Year's Day, followed by a home game against Manchester City and then a trip to Aston Villa to end the month. In the middle of it all there is a derby match against Sunderland, on enemy territory, in the FA Cup.
If Howe loses all four games in January, he will be in trouble. At the very least, he must avoid defeat at Sunderland as that is a result that is more important to supporters than anything else. Loss of the old enemy and emotions replace reason. Anger will rise and suddenly the two games from early February, home against Luton and away against Nottingham Forest, will move into must-win territory.
How much does PIF listen to their UK partners?
Even if the worst were to happen and Newcastle did not win any of their next six games, it is far from certain that Howe would be sacked.
Telegraph Sport has spoken to all the key domestic power brokers at Newcastle United in recent months. They've all said the same thing: they consider Howe their long-term manager; that this season was always going to be much more difficult than the previous one and that they had expected a significant drop in league position as a result.
They wouldn't panic if things like this happened and Howe will survive any slump because they believe he is the perfect manager for the Newcastle United they want to build in the coming years. The club is working on a five-year plan that is at least two years ahead of schedule when they qualified for the Champions League last season. Howe's job is safe. It's about as unequivocal support as you're likely to get in modern football.
But that ignores the elephant in the room. Telegraph Sport has not spoken to Saudi chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan and whether PIF shares that lofty view of Howe is unknown. PIF controls Newcastle United. They have the final say on every major decision and sign off on all other decisions as well. It is not without reason that they have taken a majority stake of 80 percent.
This is PIF's football project. They have only entrusted others to run it for them, especially since Al-Rumayyan has so many others to oversee and the kingdom itself has so many other interests as it seeks to expand its global reach and influence. Newcastle is a small cog in a much bigger machine.
PIF are new to football, but what we do know is that they want to be number one in England and Europe one day. Al-Rumayyan says this in an Amazon documentary. Newcastle are currently a long way from that goal.
Profit and sustainability rules have made PIF's vast wealth effectively irrelevant as they cannot simply buy success in the same way Chelsea and Manchester City did before them. Newcastle have the richest owners in the world, but they are far from the richest club in the world.
Does PIF appreciate this context? Do they understand that progress will be slower than they would ideally like? Do they share the view of the British board members that there will be dips and peaks during the journey? Will they listen to their arguments that Howe is not the problem, but injuries and the general quality of the squad are the things holding them back this season? If at any point PIF decides to get rid of Howe, it will happen.
As things stand, PIF would be fully aligned with all other board members and Howe is their long-term manager. He will be protected during any short-term pain.
Improving the selection in January
It is understood Howe wants as many as three new players in January, with a midfielder and forward being the main priorities. They could also be looking at a new goalkeeper as first-choice Nick Pope is out for several months with a dislocated shoulder and there are concerns over the recent form of backup Martin Dubravka.
However, Newcastle's summer transfer activities have been seriously hampered by the profit and sustainability rules, which is one of the reasons - combined with Sandro Tonali's ten-month ban for breaching betting rules at AC Milan - that the selection is so serious exposed.
These problems still exist in January and Newcastle know that what they spend in the winter period will reduce what they can do in the summer period. Difficult decisions will have to be made. The 10-point penalty handed down to Everton for breaking these rules has sharpened everyone's minds. Newcastle are also particularly reluctant to break them due to the controversy surrounding their Saudi owners.
The desire to strengthen the team is there, but it will not be easy. It is believed that Newcastle are mainly focusing on loan deals, but the message from the board is that they will do everything they can to help the manager.
