The political landscape has changed dramatically since 1992. When the Republicans sought their fourth consecutive presidential victory that year, California and New Jersey were still reliable red states. Voter realignment after the era of civil rights remained incomplete.
Looser partisan attachments have given changing economic conditions more power to change the political position of a president. First President Bush's Gallup approval rating soared to 89% as America triumphed in the first Gulf War, then plunged below 40% when voters' attention turned to economic recession going on at the same time.
The Americans firmly rejected Bush's leadership, even when the recession turned into a recovery. Elected in 1988 with 53% of the vote, Bush won only 37% when he was re-elected in a three-way race that included an offer independent from Texan businessman Ross Perot.
"It doesn't matter what Bush said," recalls Daron Shaw, who worked as a young data analyst on the Bush campaign and now contributes to the direct poll for Fox News. "As soon as you put Bush and the economy in the same sentence, people just got disconnected."
This made Bush the third president in the last century to lose re-election, all three with heavy economic responsibilities. The discouraging stagflation of 1980 helped Ronald Reagan oust the Democrat Jimmy Carter; the Great Depression fueled the rout of Franklin Roosevelt from Republican Herbert Hoover in 1932.
The deeply divided political world that Trump inhabits reduces the importance of economic issues. Strong growth for most of his tenure did not push Trump's approval of the post to 50%, or prevent his Democratic opponents from taking the house in 2018.
The appalling coronavirus victims haven't changed the president's chronically weak approval ratings either. Polarization gives it solid political ground. Voters may also be unsure of their share of responsibility in a disaster that affects the world.
This is how Trump drew unemployment figures to the level of Friday's depression. He recalled the robust economy of just two months ago - and the deliberate choice to stop it as the coronavirus spreads.
"Even the Democrats don't hold it against me," Trump told Fox News Friday morning. This gives the White House hope that holding and boosting Trump's loyal base will give it a chance in November against former Vice President Joe Biden.
Typically, the share of a past president's vote closely resembles their position approval rating. The 45% approval of Trump last month in the CNN poll almost matches the 46% of the popular vote he received in beating Hillary Clinton four years ago.
But Trump faces two big hurdles to recreate his magic of 2016.
First, his share of the vote in the clashes against Biden has considerably exceeded his approval rate. It even shows that some otherwise pro-Trump voters are tired of the incumbent's division and erratic behavior.
In the Fox national poll last month, for example, 49% approved of Trump's performance, but only 41% planned to vote for him against Biden. Fox surveys of the battlefields of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania established the gap at eight, six and five percentage points, respectively. Biden has led in all three states.
"I haven't seen a gap of this magnitude," said Shaw, who also teaches political science at the University of Texas.
Second, the health and economic record of the coronavirus complicates Trump's ability to catch up. Already, surveys show that Biden works particularly well among seniors, the group most vulnerable to coronavirus.
By moving his message to economic reopening, Trump aims to identify with the White House rebound later this year as Americans go to the polls - although health experts are already announcing a second wave of infections in the fall this could close the economy.
If the United States escapes this fate, it will be up to Biden to persuade the Americans that Trump's response to stopping the coronavirus has exacerbated their economic pain. this argument could appeal to the modest pool of swing voters and encourage others normally disaffected from politics to vote.
"Democrats have to make their case," says Paul Begala, one of the main architects of Bill Clinton's economic offensive in 1992. "The story must be, 'It does a horrible job for you. wrong.'"
