With most of the relevant festivals behind us, and most of the movies having been seen, it was pretty easy to start figuring out this list. So, here’s my current rankings of what is in play, and why, plus why I have them ranked where they are.
- Enorah (Neon)
- this Palme d’Or winner from Caanes has been consistently winning over audiences and critics, and it plans to keep doing that. Neon has this as their priority, and it is easy to understand why. Sean Baker is a consistent director whose films have been reviewed well, but they haven’t broken through in a major way at the Oscar’s. His last film, Red Rocket, got Simon Rex a lot of notice from critics groups, but no Oscar nominations. Is it time for Sean Baker to finally get his recognition? I think so. I see a package that includes at least Director, Actress, and Screenplay. Can it win? I don’t think there’s one front runner, but really the top 3 seem to be neck and neck.
2) Emilia Perez (Netflix)
the big Netflix title this year. They don’t really have another winner. Netflix has yet to win a Best Picture trophy, but for a Mexican musical tht is also the International Oscar submission for France, and has a really good shot at getting first time Oscar nominations for Zoe Saldana and Selena Gomez? Yeah, this is such a hot ticket, Gomez might get an Oscar nomination with less effort than she did her belated Emmy nomination for Only Murders In The Building. Plus, add to that likely 2 original Song nominations, probably Score, and the aforementioned International, not to mention it is basically a lock in Actress, and strong in director, and I’ve got this for at least 9 nominations. Throw in some likely Editing, Sound, or something else, and this could be the most nominated film this year.
3) The Brutalist (A24)
Adrien Brody is back. He hasn’t been nominated since winning for The Pianist, and has made some really sketchy films in the interim, but the onetime Angel in the Outfield is now the front runner in the Best Actor race for a very similar film to the last time he won an Oscar. Brady Corbett’s film is getting rapturous praise, for feeling like old epic cinema, complete with an intermission. While it is a virtual lock for Picture, Director, and Actor, the bigger question is if both Guy Pearce and Felicity Jones can come along. Pearce has never been nominated, though retroactively I feel many would nominate him for Memento. Jones has a nomination, but her screentime is entirely in the second half of the film. Will it be enough?
4) Conclave (Focus)
Aiming to be the most nominated film that wins nothing, Conclave is that film everyone likes, many like it a lot. Most people who have seen it, and weren’t blown away by any particular part of it still agree it is a contender. that’s high praise, when you can walk out somewhat indifferent, but still believing what you just watched is a contender. I think director Edward burger is just on the outside of this years director race, but Conclave is certain to get Ralph Fiennes an acting nomination, and maybe Stanley Gucci and/or Isabella Rossellini. Adapted Screenplay seems an obvious choice as well.
5) Dune: part II (Warner Bros)
After the epic failure of Furiosa, and the lukewarm reception to Joker 2 at Venice, WB has reinvigorated this campaign, already getting people out there in full force. They don’t really have another option this year,so for one of the oldest studios, it seems Dune or bust.One last possible spoiler is juror #2 which debuts at AFI this year, and might get Toni Collette her second Oscar nomination, or Nicholas Hoult his first. But Dune Part II looks great for Picture, Director, and basically every tech category. Cinematography, Editing, costume Design, Hair/Makeup, production Design, Score, Sound, and visual Effects could make Dune a powerhouse once again, without a single acting nomination.
6) Sing Sing (A24)
Oh, the mighty has fallen. The one-time front runner had a legendarily awful theatrical release. However, A24 is said to be committed to releasing this in Decemberr./January and trying to get more eyes on it. those who have seen it, love it. this race benefits from Ranked Choice voting, where being at the top matters. If Sing Sing can maintain that worship, it shouldn’t have a problem staying in this race. the bigger question is can Coleman Domingo stay in the actor race, or can anyone from this cast land in the Supporting Actor race? Past Lives was a big favorite last year, and it ended up with just a nomination for Picture and Screenplay, despite the adoration of critics groups. Is Sing Sing headed for a similar fate?
7) Blitz (Apple Plus)
I think the Brits in the Academy will help to push this through. It isn’t a major contender, but it is all Apple has. Apple is going to spend everything they have on this, because the rest of their slate was underwhelming or poorly received. I’m not expecting any major nominations, but maybe Picture, and two categories.
8) Gladiator 2 (Paramount)
I’ve noticed that this year started out with a lot of buzzy sequels, and the word was “how many sequels will get nominated?” one by one, they dropped, except for Dune. Gladiator 2 is the last one. I’m slightly concerned the film isn’t doing a festival, but the “word on the street” is supposedly very very high. I’ve heard praise for Ridley Scott, who has never won a Best Director trophy, and could really use the redemption arc here. Paul Mescal, Denzel Washington, and Connie Nielsen are all said to be strong. Even the poorly received Napoleon got technical nominations, so it’s hard to see this not in the race at all. but, Paramount has a back up plan.
9) The Nickel Boyss (Amazon)
Amazon also really has nothing left. This has been a little divisive, but it is really an artistic swing. I think Amazon is still going to push it, and it seems like one of those “if enough people put it at #1”, then this could get in. If this starts to falter, you’ll see a reinvigorated campaign for challengers as a last ditch effort. Director is an outside chance, as is Supporting Actress.
10) Saturday Night (Sony)
This might be a controversial pick. The film has a somewhat lukewarm reception, but the added benefit of this being SNL’s 50th Anniversary all the way through Oscar season. it is like free press. It also isn’t like anything else in the Top 10, and I’m not sure what else Sony would run this year. This might get a surprise SAG nomination, getting it on the radar, and then maybe only geting a Picture/Screenplay nomination. It reminds me of Don’t look Up, when that snuck in.
11) A Complete Unknown (Fox Searchlight)
Part of the problem is that this is a movie yet to be seen. So, is it really a contender? They’ve done some reshoots. Not every musical biopic pans out. A few recent ones have really only gotten their actors on the list. The reason people are interested here is James mangold as director, since he got Walk The Line to Best Picture when there were only five slots, plus both Phoenix and Witherspoon in the acting races. This could be Picture, as well as Chalamet’s second Oscar nomination. Beyond that? it’s pretty unknown.
12) September 5th (Paramount)
Remember I said Paramount had a contingency? it was this. But, Paramount also doesn’t need this, and despite having a nice cast, and great reception at the festivals, it will never be Paramount’s priority if Gladiator 2 is seen as a juggernaut. It needs to either get pushed, or it will have to hope Gladiator 2 is another mediocre Ridley Scott film. If the latter is true, I’ll put this in my Top 10.
13) Wicked (Universal)
I have no real faith in this. However, it hasn’t been seen yet. Universal’s biggest hope is through its Focus label. Wicked could pull a Les Miserables, and I would have more confidence if it was just one film. I’d also have more confidence with a better director. However, Cynthia Erivo is going to blow the roof off of Defying Gravity, and she could sneak in the actress race, putting eyes on this project.
14) Here
Robert Zemeckis has a camera. it is pointed at a corner of a room. Robert Zemeckis also hasn’t directed a good film since Flight. Will this premise break his cold streak?
15) A Real pain (Fox searchlight)
Knowing Fox Searchlight’s slate, if Complete Unknown isn’t received well, A Real pain will get a bigger push. Night Bitch isn’t getting the kind of wide love needed, but A Real Pain is getting that “it was good, but best Picture?” Vibe. Like, the kind of film it is just doesn’t typically get a nomination. but the film itself is well liked, and the two actors are too.
And 10 Others to still kinda/sorta keep an eye on:
16) Challengers (Amazon)
17) Nosferatu
18) The Life of Chuck (Neon)
19) The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
20) The Room Next Door
21) Baby Girl
22) the Apprentice (Briarcliff)
24) Queer (A24)
25) The Wild Robot (Universal)
