In September, I revealed my current top rankings for Best Picture. Now, it is time to take a hard look at who is in and… well… if I don’t mention them, I guess they are out. At least, they aren’t in my rankings.
- Mikey Madison (Anora)
- So, I’m not sure she can actually win, but I’m most certain in her path to the nomination. The Palme d’or winner from Cannes is Neon’s top priority this year, and this performance is being highly praised. I expect her to get all the “rising star’ buzz, and do well with critics groups and precursor awards. Yes, the performance is sexual, but so was last year’s winner. I think the voting body has gotten more progressive, and stuff like that is becoming less of a negative. I think this is more like Jennifer Lawrence being nominated for Winter’s Bone, or Lily Gladstone for last year’s Killers Of The Flower Moon, and instead of immediately translating into a win, it announces her arrival.
2) Angelina Jolie (Maria)
I actually think once Jolie gets the nomination, she’ll overtake Madison.While Pablo Lorraine hasn’t gotten his last two ladies Oscars, he has gotten them both to nominations. With Netflix behind this, the only thing hurting Jolie is that she might be this films only nomination, and Netflix has a top priority in Amelia Perez. It has been forever since Jolie won for Girl Interrupted, and much like how Renee Zellweger went from Cold Mountain to Judy, Jolie should get her second Oscar this year.
3) Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
A groundbreaking nomination. There’s a chance that everyone is over indexing this, but we have been seeing trans talent getting nominated and winning elsewhere. This would just be groundbreaking for the Oscar’s, for a leading category. If she is nominated, being the first is basically a win in and of itself. She also has the “breakthrough” feel that Madison has, which isn’t likely to get her to the prize in the end.
4) Nicole Kidman (Baby Girl)
If Madison can get nominated for a sexually forward movie, then I think Kidman can earn a nomination for this late stage surprise hit. She’s a previous winner, and has multiple nominations.I don’t think she can win, but I think she might surprise in a very odd year.
5) June Squibb (Thelma)
Listen. Everyone else might be doing Demi Moore for The Substance, but my left field projection is that Squibb’s memorable comedy from the summer will land her a somewhat surprising Actress win. She’d be the oldest in the category ever, and only has 1 previous nomination. It is almost certain this is her last shot at a nomination. she’s basically guaranteed a Golden Globe nomination. I’m sure she’ll appear at the indie Spirit awards, and perhaps very soon at the Gotham’s. The only pause I have is Magnolia and their ability to campaign.
On The Bubble:
6) Amy Adam’s (Night Bitch)
Her performance is strong, but the movie is leaving people tepid. Adam’s is a multiple nominee who is in that category of “can we please give these fucking women an Oscar already?” Along with Annette Bening and Glenn Close. She might get in like Bening did last year for Nyad, a film not everyone liked.
7) Saorise Ronan (The Out Run )
I think Ronan has a better shot with her supporting turn in Blitz. She’s in the position to get either two nominations, one, or none. It’s not the worst position to be in, but vote splitting, where people don’t want to nominate her twice, could end up pulling her into the none category.
8) Zendaya (Challengers)
If you look at Amazon/MGM’s slate, they really do not have much. So, a campaign for last falls Challengers will happen. She’ll likely land somewhere at a precursor, causing people to rally for her, but I don’t think the release date helps her at all. I bet Amazon/MGM wishes they had waited a few more months, since Challengers is the stronger Luca Guadaninino film this year.
9) Demi Moore (The Substance)
She’s not getting nominated, but people won’t shut up about her. therefore, here I am, having to rank her. Listen, they didn’t go for past scream queens like Toni Collette (Hereditary), Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), or Lupita Nyong’o (Us), all of whom landed precursor nominations for films that were’t body horror. this feels to me like how people were trying to get Mia Goth a nomination for Pearl. the *only* reason I’m even considering it, is because there’s always a chance she literally shows up everywhere, and I’ll tell you right now… if she can get the BAFTA’s, as stuffy as they usually are, to nominate her, she’ll get that Oscar nomination.
10) Marianne jean Baptiste (Hard Truths)
If this wasn’t distributed by Bleeker Street, but instead Sony Pictures Classics, I’d have her probably at #6. She might be the films only nomination, but her buzz is quite strong.
For now, I’m leaving it at ten, so while there are a few other performances of note, like Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Robin Wright (Here), and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), I think this is a solid top 10. Though, it could change. I’m really interested to see who kicks off the nominations at the Gotham Awards coming up this week. Will it help anyone? the only precursors that matter are the ones with voting overlaps, like SAG and BAFTA, but it doesn’t hurt to have your name showing up on as many lists as possible, making it feel like people have to see your film. That could always be the difference between Danielle Detweiler getting in for Till or not. For a film where she would have been the only nomination, she could have used more precursor awards.
