Political pundits are predicting a wave election this year (an election that will result in the flipping of control of one or both houses of Congress -- from Republicans to Democrats). I think they are right -- assuming that Democrats and other Americans stay angry and enthusiastic about voting.
The charts above look like a recipe for a wave election to me. The public doesn't approve of the job Trump is doing (by 13 points), doesn't approve of the job the GOP-controlled Congress is doing (by 48 points), and doesn't like the direction of the country (by 20 points). And those numbers have been fairly consistent all year long (note the charts above).
The Republicans have about 8 months to try and turn these numbers around, but so far, they seem incapable of doing that. While these charts go back to the first of the year, the trend is actually much longer for all three (Trump, Congress, Direction). The public seems to have made up their mind about all three.
The Republicans were sure their tax plan would change these numbers (since they called it a benefit for the middle class). But the public wasn't fooled. They saw who got most of the benefits of that tax plan -- the rich and corporations. That ridiculous tax plan has not changed the numbers at all.
What will the GOP do? At this point, I'm not sure there is anything they can do to avoid disaster in November (unless they can somehow convince Democrats and Independents to stay home on election day).
The charts above reflect results from the Economist / YouGov Poll -- the latest being done between March 10th and 13th of a national sample of 1,500 adults, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.
