The charts above are from a recent Gallup Poll. Gallup looked at these numbers and declared that the Republicans will win the 2014 election in Texas. They reached that conclusion because 61% of Whites in Texas identify with the Republican Party, while only 26% identify with Democrats. They also concluded that there aren't enough Hispanic voters yet to turn the tide, and Texas Hispanics are slightly more Republican than national Hispanics (27% to 21%).I'm not so sure about that. For one thing, Hispanics don't vote according to party preference (but in 2012 election voted about 75% for Democrats -- just like other minorities). For another, the Democrats have a better gubernatorial candidate than they have had in the last 20 years, and that could swing a significant number of White Independents to consider voting Democratic. I decided to play around with some numbers, and came to the conclusion that this could be a very close election.
Here are the latest numbers I could find for registered voters:
Total...............13,445,285
And using Gallup's percentages, that breaks down to:
Whites...............8,604,982
Hispanics...............2,554,604
Blacks...............1,747,887
Others...............672,264
Let's start by assuming that Gallup's figures are correct, and that White voters will vote the party they preferred. That gives us the following:
Republicans (61%)...............5,249,039
Democrats (26%)...............2,237,295
Now let's add in the minority percentages the way they voted in the 2012 election (because the Republicans have done nothing to reach out to minority voters).
REPUBLICANS
Whites (61%)...............5,249,039
Hispanics (27%)...............689,743
Blacks (10%)...............174,789
Others (25%)...............168,066
TOTAL...............6,281,637
DEMOCRATS
Whites (26%)...............2,237,295
Hispanics (73%)...............1,864,861
Blacks (90%)...............1,573,098
Others (75%)...............504,198
TOTAL...............6,179,452
DIFFERENCE
102,185
That looks pretty damn close to me. But I have left out one group -- White Independents. They make up about 12% of Texas voters. That's about 1,032,598 voters. The Democrats need about 55% of those White Independent voters to win. They didn't get that many in 2010 (when the Dems had a poor gubernatorial candidate) or 2012 (when race played a big issue in the campaign). I think it could be different this year.
Of course, the biggest issue is whose voters will show up at the polls in November . In the last election, only about 59% of registered voters actually bothered to vote. Will most voters be White Republicans, or will a lot of them stay home thinking their vote is not needed? Will minorities turn out in large numbers (and how effective has the Democratic campaign to register Hispanics been)? Which party will White Independents vote for (or will they not vote)? Those are questions we can't know until voting day arrives in November, but it is the answer to those questions that will determine the outcome of the election.
Call me a dreamer if you want, but I still think the Democrats have a chance in Texas this year. It won't be easy, but it can be done.
