The premise of the importance of that date is that is the date of the extreme sentiment shift when the bull market from the early 1980s was launched. That is when the 1970s bears capitulated in one massive "we can accomplish miracles" cathartic and societal swing of sentiment. The bull market was born. Original RLS Post: The Miracle on Ice Wave. That extreme sentiment shift is the date I would measure the cycles from.
There is irony that at the Fibonacci 34 year anniversary, the Winter Olympics were played in Russia, with the US Team beating the Russians on their own ice. With the failed breakout (so far) on the near term Extreme Bull Scenario that I have been trading but not trusting, there really is not much in the way of waves that can be made here absent that failed breakout being reversed. As I posted, I never really trusted that scenario given seasonality, analogs, and cycles, though it is still viable so long as the February 2013 low holds.
Long term, the bear market is not dead--yet. We have the long term bull market and long term bear market scenarios. Long Term Bear Market Scenario and Long Term Bull Market Scenario. The long term bear market scenario lives so long as we do not take and hold the SPX 1917 area as was noted in the post. The triangle in the middle of the move off the 2009 low, which I have discussed, is potentially very bearish as was noted. So, let us set time aside and the continually viable bear and bull scenarios and look at price. Now, as you know I try very hard to see all the scenarios and to not let ego get in the way. However as for price, there is a potentially scary completed harmonic pattern on the CAC-40 of its entire wave up off the 2009 low. Harmonically, we have completed a correction to the exact fib area and in the area of the 50 percent retrace point of the prior wave down into the 2009 low:
If the CAC-40 is going to end its wave up off the 2009 low, this is right where one would expect it to end.Sentiment is very bullish, almost euphoric, among the indexes and trading public. Now, I would rather have a clear line, than guess, so that 4290.47 is the low that one would expect to not get breached in CAC-40 if this bullish breakout is real. I will be watching it. From a trading perspective, the CAC-40 is still a daily breakout, so until that gets taken away, we cannot be thinking significant top. However, it is harmonically at where it should end if this is not a long term bull wave off 2009 and is instead a correction of the wave down into the 2009 low.
Given everything I have seen the last two weeks, including the failed breakout, I believe there is a decent probability that global equities have and/or are in the process of making a very significant top right in this time frame. I am tracking this going forward.
There is always a bull path and a bear path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions.
Peace, Om,
SoulJester
