A few months ago the Republicans were ecstatic over their supposed chance to take over the Senate. But that chance depended on doing well in the states that are normally reliably Republican. They expected to pick up a seat in Arkansas, and hold seats in both Kentucky and Georgia -- and I would agree that if they were to have a chance to win the Senate, they would need to win all of those three states (in addition to a few others). Failure to win all three of these states would probably end any hope of being in the majority in the U.S. Senate.
And things aren't working out as they expected. There's still a long way to go before November, but a new NBC News / Marist Poll shows none of these states is going to be easy for the GOP. That poll shows the GOP hopeful in Arkansas trailing incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor by about 11 points. And the GOP's Senate Minority Leader (Mitch McConnell) can't seem to shake his Democratic candidate (Alison Grimes) in Kentucky. That race has been a virtual deadlock for months now.
Just as shocking is how well Michelle Nunn, the Democratic candidate in Georgia is doing. The Republicans haven't chosen their candidate there yet, but the poll shows Nunn holding her own (and with a real chance to win) against all of the GOP hopefuls.
I think the GOP was hoping to have a repeat of the 2010 election, and thought that could put them firmly in control of Congress -- but that just ain't gonna happen. They're going to have to fight for every senate seat, even in the South.
The survey in Arkansas was done between April 30th and May 4th of 876 registered Arkansas voters, and has a margin of error of 3.3 points.
The survey in Kentucky was done between April 30th and May 6th of 2,353 registered Kentucky voters, and has a margin of error of 2 points.
The survey in Georgia was done between April 30th and May 5th of 2,196 registered Georgia voters, and has a margin of error of 2.1 points.
