The Republicans are still trying to float the argument that they will win the 2014 election because of the public's disapproval of President Obama -- and they seem to have fooled many in the mainstream media into believing that. It is a silly proposition for a couple of reasons. First, the public settled that question in the 2012 election. Second, the president's approval ratings are at least three times as large as those of Congress. This is an election about a Congress that the public is disgusted with.
So, if the public is disgusted with Congress, who will they vote for in the coming election? If the election is decided on the issues, that favors the Democrats -- because the public agrees with the Democratic stand on most issues. If the election is decided by a nationwide anti-incumbent vote, that also favors the Democrats -- because the Republicans are the ones with a House majority (and an anti-incumbent vote usually flips control of the House).
But there is a third reason that the 2014 election may favor the Democrats -- the public just likes the Democratic Party more than they like the Republican Party. The charts above were made from information in a series of Gallup Polls on party approval by the public -- with the latest being done between April 24th and 30th of 1,513 nationwide adults, and has a margin of error of 3 points.
The top chart shows the public approval of both parties since the 2010 election. Note that while the Republicans enjoyed a 2 point advantage in November of 2010, their approval has dropped and they now have a 10 point disadvantage in approval -- with approval for the Democrats being 44% and the Republicans being 34%. That figure alone tells us it is very unlikely that the 2014 election will be a repeat of the 2010 election (when Republicans scored a smashing victory).
Some of you may be thinking now that the chart didn't account for those disapproving of the two parties. That's why I included the second chart -- it is showing the net approval rating for each party (which is the disapproval rating percentage subtracted from the approval rating percentage). But that doesn't make the Republican chances look any better. In fact, the net approval rating is even worse for the GOP -- putting them at a 19 point disadvantage instead of the 10 point disadvantage shown only by approval.
The simple fact is that the public at large approves of Democrats significantly more than they approve of Republicans. Of course, this doesn't insure a Democratic win or a GOP loss. That will be determined by the size of the turnout. It does show though that a good turnout of voters in the November election tends to favor the Democratic Party. Now it is up to Democrats to get busy and make sure that turnout in November is a large one.
