The Rasmussen Poll has recently conducted a new survey of the Texas race for governor between Republican Greg Abbott and Democrat Wendy Davis. The survey was done on August 4th and 5th of 850 likely Texas voters, and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.
I see this new survey as having both good and bad news for the candidacy of Wendy Davis. The good news is that Abbott's lead has shrunk. The last time Rasmussen polled in this race (in March), Abbott enjoyed a 12 point lead. That lead has been cut to 8 points now. The bad news is that 8 points is a lot of ground to make up between now and the first Tuesday of November.
This same poll also showed that 7 out of 10 Texans wanted those children who turned themselves in at the border to be deported (as quickly as possible). That seems a bit high for a state that is quickly becoming a state where the majority of the population is made up of minority groups -- and tells me the poll was weighted more toward white voters.
Rasmussen obviously thinks the November election will follow the example set by past elections -- where the significant majority of voters are whites. Will that be true this year? The Democratic Party has conducted a massive effort to register minority voters -- especially in South Texas and the urban areas. If those new registrants turn out in large numbers, this could be anyone's election. If they don't, then Abbott will cruise to a fairly easy victory.
Democrats always knew this would be a tough election to win, but believed it could be done with a lot of hard work and an effective get-out-the-vote campaign. I agree, and I still think that regardless of who wins, this will be the closest election for governor in the last 20 years.
