Here’s an example of media coverage of the meeting: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy9jdpep4ydo
The 16th United Nations Biodiversity summit attended by representatives of 196 countries has ended with almost no progress toward the stated goal to halt nature decline by 2030. The next biodiversity summit will be in 2026. By then, the economic and political pressures that blocked progress at this meeting will probably be worse.
Biodiversity is one feature of the biosphere. It describes the variety of organisms present at a particular place and time. Other biosphere characteristics are quantity, productivity, resilience, and biochemical processes such as the carbon cycle, water cycle, and more. These characteristics are negatively impacted by our replacement of natural habitats with cities and farms, our pollution of the air and water, our introduction of invasive species, and more.
Biosphere deterioration isn’t apparent to casual viewers. We still see roadside grasslands and forests. However, research indicates that by 2030 our biosphere impacts will force natural resources, institutions, and infrastructure into the first stages of a cascading sequence of failures. Precisely when and where failures will occur is not predictable since severe storms, fires, and conflicts will impact the timing of events at particular places. The first stages of the failures are already apparent in the residential insurance costs and restrictions that are beginning to appear. If our impacts are not controlled, and if no societal adaptations are made, we will experience the worst effects described below.
Agricultural Decline:
Changes in climate patterns, soil degradation, and loss of pollinators will reduce crop yields. This leads to food shortages and increased prices, affecting food security globally.
Water Scarcity:
Overuse of freshwater resources and contamination will result in diminished water supplies for drinking, sanitation, and agriculture, impacting both health and food production.
Health Crises:
Environmental degradation will lead to the spread of diseases, as changing ecosystems allow vectors like mosquitoes to thrive in new areas. Healthcare systems will become overwhelmed by increased disease burdens.
Economic Stress:
Resource scarcity and increased costs will lead to inflation and economic instability. Supply chain disruptions will occur as raw materials become harder to obtain.
Infrastructure Damage:
Extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires become more frequent and severe, damaging roads, bridges, power grids, and communication networks.
Energy Shortages:
Damage to infrastructure and resource scarcity will lead to energy shortages, affecting everything from home heating to industrial production.
Migration and Displacement:
Areas affected by sea-level rise, desertification, or extreme weather will become uninhabitable, leading to large-scale migrations and refugee crises.
Social Unrest:
Resource shortages and displacement will heighten tensions within and between communities, leading to protests, conflicts, and increased crime rates.
Governmental Strain:
Governments will struggle to manage multiple crises simultaneously, leading to decreased public trust and challenges in maintaining order and providing services.
Education and Social Services Decline:
As resources are diverted to address immediate crises, funding for education, social services, and cultural institutions will be reduced, impacting societal development.
International Tensions:
Competition for scarce resources like water and arable land will escalate into international disputes or conflicts.
Financial System Instability:
Prolonged economic stress will lead to the failure of financial institutions, loss of investments, and lost consumer confidence, exacerbating economic woes.
Collapse of Global Supply Chains:
As nations turn inward to deal with internal crises, international trade will diminish, leading to shortages of goods and further economic decline.
Breakdown of Law and Order:
In a growing number of locations, law enforcement and judicial systems will be unable to cope with widespread unrest and crime, leading to a breakdown of societal norms and protections.
Technological Regression:
With the collapse of educational institutions and economic systems, technological advancement will stall or regress due to lack of resources and expertise.
Conclusion
Though it is not visible to most people, the damage to the biosphere is already so great that it is no longer reversable. The most positive projections indicate that even with immediate and drastic intervention, some of the failures are unavoidable. My survey of adaptations to a deteriorating biosphere that can mitigate some of the worst effects of the failures will be published in January 2025.
