The Cook Political Report on May 31, 2013, sets aside the IRS, DOJ attack on media, and Benghazi scandals rocking the White House as well as the rocky implementation of Obamacare and digs into the "simple demographic math" and concludes the GOP have a "built-in midterm turnout advantage."Excerpts below:
Midterm elections have always drawn older voters, and usually drawn white voters, to the polls in disproportionate numbers. Older voters are less transient, have grown deeper roots in their local communities, and pay much more attention to non-presidential elections than their younger counterparts. In the 1980s, that didn't hold partisan consequences. Today, that amounts to a built-in midterm turnout advantage for Republicans.[...]
Republicans' built-in midterm turnout advantage really began to emerge in the early part of the last decade but has ballooned in the Obama era. That's because partisan voting patterns are more polarized by age and race than they ever have been, and Obama's coalition is more highly dependent on young and non-white voters than any presidential coalition before it. ......
[...]
As recently as 2000, House Democrats did just as well with voters over the age of 65 as they did among voters between the ages of 18 to 29. But beginning in 2002, Democrats started performing much better with the youngest voters than the oldest voters, and in both 2010 and 2012, House Democrats performed a whopping 16 points better with 18-29 year olds than voters over 65. This gap spells big 2014 trouble for Democrats running in marginal states and districts.
[...]
Between 1992 and 2012, House Democrats have always done between 30 and 39 percent better with non-white voters than white voters. However, whereas a widening generation gap between the parties has deemed existing generational turnout patterns more dire for Democrats in 2014, the story of race is a mirror image: a widening racial turnout gap between midterms and presidential years has made an existing partisan racial gulf more dire for Democrats in 2014.
The report concludes:
For most Democratic House candidates, a good rule of thumb might be to subtract two to three points from the 2012 Democratic percentage in the district to come up with a reasonable approximation of a "starting point" for a 2014 race. That means most Democrats probably need to perform about five percent better among Independent voters in 2014 just to stay afloat at 2012 levels, and would need an even higher share of Independents to pick up seats. Wow
Bottom line, recent demographic math hands Republicans an easy advantage, but history also offers the GOP an advantage going back to 1938.
Historically, midterm elections, specifically during a second term for a president, shows their party almost always loses seats in the House and Senate, with the exception being Bill Clinton who lost eight Senate seats and 52 House seats during his first term, but gained 5 seats in the House and came up with an even 0 lost, 0 gained in the Senate, during his second term.
Year President Party President Approval Rating - Late October House Senate
1934 Franklin D. Roosevelt D nd +9 +9
1938 Franklin D. Roosevelt D 60% -71 -6
1942 Franklin D. Roosevelt D nd -55 -9
1946 Harry S. Truman D 27% -45 -12
1950 Harry S. Truman D 41% -29 -6
1954 Dwight D. Eisenhower R nd -18 -1
1958 Dwight D. Eisenhower R nd -48 -13
1962 John F. Kennedy D 61% -4 +3
1966 Lyndon B. Johnson D 44% -47 -4
1970 Richard Nixon R nd -12 +2
1974 Gerald R. Ford R nd -48 -5
1978 Jimmy Carter D 49% -15 -3
1982 Ronald Reagan R 42% -26 +1
1986 Ronald Reagan R nd -5 -8
1990 George Bush R 57% -8 -1
1994 William J. Clinton D 48% -52 -8
1998 William J. Clinton D 65% +5 0
2002 George W. Bush R 67% +8 +2
2006 George W. Bush R 37% -30 -6
Source: The American Presidency ProjectBack to The Cook Political Report, which asks: "Is there any hope that Democrats can find the silver bullet to turn around their midterm turnout woes with minority and younger voters?"
The better question in my opinion would be, "Will the Republicans screw up their built-in demographic and historical advantages?"
There are a number of ways they can build on these advantages
Adding the recent scandals rocking the White House back into the equation, the Congressional Republicans in the House can satisfy the majority of Americans, 76 percent, including 63 percent of Democrats, by appointing a special prosecutor to investigate and IRS scandal of targeting conservatives and conservative groups.
It is very important though that the person chosen not have a history of being partisan in either direction or the investigation and the results will be seen as "political," and negate the overall effects of those results.
Republicans also need to tie each and every Democrat, that voted for Obamacare, to every study, article and reported "bump and glitch," tax and regulation associated with Obamacare, immediately and relentlessly.
The GOP must learn to communicate and utilize their base and supporters. These are the people that will use forums, comment sections, social medial, emails, talk to friends and family, go door-to-door for them, and help them bypass the liberal media in order to get their message across.
Most importantly, Republicans need to back candidates that will not shoot themselves in the foot at every opportunity.
The GOP is going into the 2014 campaign season with built-in demographic and historical advantages, a scandal ridden Democratic White House which is implementing an unpopular healthcare law that even Democrats are calling a "train wreck," they need to capitalize on every single one of them.
