Conservatives Condemn Themselves to Opposition
Posted: 26/02/2014 | Author: The Political Idealist | Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: austerity, Coalition, david cameron, democracy, Labour, Lib Dems, parliament, Politics, social justice |Leave a comment »Press stories are circulating this morning about David Cameron’s determination to avoid a second-term coalition with the Liberal Democrats. It is said that Cameron wants a firm commitment in the Conservatives’ 2015 manifesto to rule out a power-sharing coalition in the event of another hung parliament. In the event of the Conservative Party failing to secure a majority, it would seek to form a single-party minority government. It’s fully understandable that Cameron feels the need to placate his party after it has spent the past 4 years having several of its favourite policies vetoed by the Lib Dems (or the “yellow peril” as one Conservative backbencher described them). Yet in doing so, Cameron has almost entirely eliminated the prospect of a second Conservative-led government.
There are several assumptions which lead to this conclusion. They are assumptions, but they are valid ones. Firstly, the Conservatives’ popularity peaked in 2010. After half a decade of gruelling austerity and generalised incompetence on the Conservatives’ watch, there is little chance that they could improve on their electoral position in 2010, when they did not have such political baggage. In any case, Government advisors now estimate that the Conservatives will need 40% of the vote to command a majority, compared to 36% gained last time. Therefore, the Conservatives can only lose seats, not gain them. Accordingly, Cameron will have to rely on smaller political parties to form a government.
This brings us to assumption number two: smaller parties will not be able to co-operate with the Conservatives without some form of formal agreement. But all agreements have been ruled out. Yet that issue probably won’t arise because no party other than the Lib Dems will have enough MPs to guarantee the minority government’s survival. For example, if the Conservatives held 300 seats (about the number they have now), they would need support from 26 MPs from outside the party: the overall figure for the small parties hovers around 30. And that includes vehemently anti-Tory groups like Plaid Cymru and the SDLP. Scratch that, then.
In short, the Conservatives would need Lib Dem support for a second term, as their only opportunity to form a government arises if the Lib Dems hold the balance of power.
Imagine you are Nick Clegg. The results have just come in from the 2015 general election, and your 35 remaining MPs (your actions in coalition with the Conservatives were very unpopular) can form a majority with the Conservatives or Labour. A second alliance with the former would end your party as an independent political force, and in any case, they have refused to grant your party any role in the new government. The latter will enter a full coalition, and co-operating with them will re-establish your party as the vanguard of the centre ground of British politics. Which would you choose?
As a Labour member, I detest the idea of having my party work with the Lib Dems. But if there is no prospect of them playing kingmaker in a hung parliament, then some quite tight preconditions can be imposed on any Lab-Lib pact. For a start, anybody Lib Dem who has collaberated with the Conservative-led government and their toxic policies from within the current Cabinet should be excluded from the frontbench of a centre-left government. The likes of Vince Cable and Danny Alexander must be confined to the backbenches while Labour ministers undo the horrednous damage that they have inflicted on the country. It’s still hardly ideal.
The best policy of all is to ensure that as many geniunely left-wing MPs are elected as possible.
