Data-generated scouting tracks micro-stats in order to quantify the impact each player has on the game. The totals produced by an entire team can also be used to compare the numbers a team produces during wins, with those they contribute during losses. Because the number used in this post are generated at even-strength, it is equally important to compare the data compiled in games where the Canadiens out-score their opposition at ES, with those from games where they are outscored.
The purpose of this post is two-fold. Firstly, it will communicate how the Montreal Canadiens have performed this season. Secondly, the numbers included here go a long way toward showing that the stats being tracked within my system actually impact the outcome of games. If the numbers tracked fluctuate with the game's outcome, than having players who produce well within this system should in-turn positively impact the outcome of the game.
DATA INCLUDED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE POST
ES RATIO
Even-strength ratio shows the number of successful plays a team (or player) makes for every 1 unsuccessful play. All events at even-strength (regardless of zone) are included in this calculation.
The Canadiens have produced an average even-strength ratio of 2.27 this season, and 2.26 over the last 10 games. When they win they have had an ES ratio of 2.33, compared to 2.21 in losses. In games where they have outscored their opposition at even-strength the Habs have a ratio of 2.31, while in games where they've been out-scored by the opposition their ratio is 2.21.
ES RISK/REWARD RATING
Even-strength risk/reward reflects how many more successful plays than unsuccessful plays a team (or player) makes per-minute of ice-time. Players who are more involved in the play, and contribute more events generally have higher risk/reward ratings than less active players. For this very reason, risk/reward is also a useful tool in determining how much of an impact a specific player or team is having on a game.
The Canadiens have produced an average even-strength risk/reward rating of 1.65 this season, and 1.60 over the last 10 games. When they win they have had an ES rating of 1.69, compared to 1.60 in losses. In games where they have outscored their opposition at even-strength the Habs have a rating of 1.68, while in games where they've been out-scored by the opposition their risk/reward rating is 1.60.
SUCCESSFUL ES OFFENSIVE-TOUCHES / MP
Successful offensive touches per-minute played represent the number of successful plays with possession a team or player contributes per-minute played. Events used in this calculation include:
- Shots
- Dekes
- Dekes along the wall
- Passes
- Passes to the slot
- Dump-ins
- Deflections
- Stretch passes (from the defensive-zone)
- D-to-D passes (in the defensive-zone)
- Outlet passes (in the defensive-zone)
The Canadiens have produced an average of 1.34 successful offensive-touches per-minute played this season, and 1.28 over the last 10 games. When they win they have produced 1.35 successful o-touches per-minute, compared to 1.33 in losses. In games where they have outscored their opposition at even-strength the Habs have a contributed 1.32, while in games where they've been out-scored by the opposition their o-touch contribution has been 1.33. The reasoning behind this last number is an increase in successful defensive-zone passes, as opposition teams forecheck more passively when leading.
OFFENSIVE-TOUCH SUCCESS-RATE
Offensive-touch success-rate (puck-possession success-rate) is a reflection of how successful a team or player is at maintaining possession for his team. Consequently, the lower the success-rate is, the higher the turnover-rate.
The Canadiens have produced an average even-strength offensive-touch success-rate of 63.3% this season, and 62.7% over the last 10 games. When they win they have had an o-touch success-rate of 63.9%, compared to 62.5% in losses. In games where they have outscored their opposition at even-strength the Habs have an o-touch success-rate of 63.4%, while in games where they've been out-scored by the opposition their success-rate is 62.6%.
SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-TOUCHES / MP
Successful defensive touches per-minute played represent the number of successful attempts at removing puck-possession from the opposition a team or player contributes per-minute played. Events used in this calculation include:
- Blocked passes
- Stick-checks
- Body checks
- Blocked shots
The Canadiens have produced an average of 0.47 successful defensive-touches per-minute played this season, and 0.47 over the last 10 games. When they win they have produced 0.47 successful d-touches per-minute, compared to 0.47 in losses. In games where they have outscored their opposition at even-strength the Habs have a contributed 0.49, while in games where they've been out-scored by the opposition their d-touch contribution has been 0.46.
DEFENSIVE-TOUCH SUCCESS-RATE
Defensive-touch success-rate is a reflection of how successful a team or player is at removing puck-possession for the opposition.
The Canadiens have produced an average even-strength defensive-touch success-rate of 61.1% this season, and 61.8% over the last 10 games. When they win they have had a d-touch success-rate of 61.3%, compared to 60.9% in losses. In games where they have outscored their opposition at even-strength the Habs have a d-touch success-rate of 62.2%, while in games where they've been out-scored by the opposition their success-rate is 61.0%.
TAKEAWAY TO TURNOVER RATIO
Takeaway to turnover ratio reflects how many takeaways a team or player contributes for every 1 turnover. Takeaways include all successful defensive-touches plus loose-puck recoveries, while turnovers include any FAILED offensive-touches.
The Canadiens have produced an average even-strength takeaway to turnover ratio of 2.08 this season, and 2.10 over the last 10 games. When they win they have had a T-to-T ratio of 2.13, compared to 2.01 in losses. In games where they have outscored their opposition at even-strength the Habs have had a ratio of 2.14, while in games where they've been out-scored by the opposition their takeaway to turnover ratio is 2.01.
SCORING CHANCE RATIO
Scoring-chance ratio represents the number of scoring-chances a team or player is directly involved in producing for every 1 scoring-chance against they are directly responsible for. As a result of having less defensive-responsibilities, wingers generally have the highest scoring-chance ratios, while defensemen (with the most defensive-responsibilities) have the lowest.
The Canadiens have produced an average even-strength scoring-chance ratio of 1.00 this season, and 0.88 over the last 10 games. When they win they have had a SC ratio of 1.10, compared to 0.87 in losses. In games where they have outscored their opposition at even-strength the Habs have had a ratio of 1.13, while in games where they've been out-scored by the opposition their scoring-chance ratio is 0.75.
RATINGS AND RATIOSLOSSESWINSTOTLAST 10ES POSES NEG
ES RATIO2.212.332.272.262.312.21
ES RISK/REWARD RATING1.601.691.651.601.681.60
SUCCESSFUL ES OTOUCHES / MP1.331.351.341.281.321.33
ES SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE TOUCH %62.5%63.9%63.3%62.7%63.4%62.6%
ES DTOUCHES / MP0.470.470.470.470.490.46
ES SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-TOUCH %60.9%61.3%61.1%61.8%62.2%61.0%
TAKEAWAY TO TURNOVER RATIO (HIGHER IS BETTER)2.012.132.082.102.141.99
SCORING CHANCE FOR/AGAINST RATIO (HIGHER IS BETTER)0.871.101.000.881.130.75
Data-generated scouting can help breakdown both the performance of specific players, as well as the performance of entire teams. The fact that the data tracked fluctuates with the outcome of the game shows a solid link between the metrics, and the result. This also demonstrates a link between having players who score well within this system, and team success.
These reports can be produced for any player at any level. All that's required is video. Feel free to contact me by e-mail with any questions, comments, or inquiries about the services I provide.
[email protected]
