In the continuing quest to demonstrate links between what's being tracked here at Boucher Scouting and real-world performance stats, I've shifted the focus to establishing a link between the number of successful offensive-zone passes, the number of successful shots on net, and the number of points a player produced per-minute of ice-time. The goal here is to show that completed offensive-zone passes and shots-on-net are important indicators of a productive offensive-player.
The graph below is a visual representation of the number of completed o-zone passes and successful shots on net a player produces, as well as the number of points each player produces per-20 minute of ice-time.
There seems to be less of a link between the two variables for those forwards who focus on the cycle in the offensive-zone (Travis Moen, Colby Armstrong). This is possibly due to the fact that those players send less of their completed passes into scoring areas. Conversely, players with high "true-shooting-percentages" like Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher needed less successful offensive-zone events to produce points. "TSP" quantifies the percentage of a player's attempted shots on net that result in a goal.
*Only those players with at least 150 even-strength minutes played were included
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF COMPLETED SHOTS/PASSES, AND POINT PRODUCTION
This graph represents a comparative analysis between the number of successful shots and passes in the offensive-zone and the amount of points produced through 20-minute of ice-time. The higher the r-squared value, the higher the relationship between the 2 variables.
An r-squared of 0.690 indicates an r-value of .831. This tells us that 69% of the variation in Habs players' offensive-output (points) can be explained by shots through to the net and completed offensive-zone passes. Expressed simply, 69% of the players' offensive-output (points) were related to a completed offensive-zone pass, or shot through to the net.
As obvious as this may seem, it remains an important point to establish. In theory, this tells us that players who produce more completed offensive-zone passes, and shots through to the net will produce more points. Therefore, tracing these events, and using them to compare players could become a knowledge-based advantage.
COMPARATIVE-ANALYSIS OF FIRST AND SECOND-HALF O-ZONE NUMBERS
After establishing a link between successful offensive-zone puck-possession plays, the next step becomes validating whether the events tracked over the course of the first half of the season will indicate a player's performance over the second half. We do this by comparing the numbers tracked over the first 24 games of the 2013 season against those produced over the second-half.
This study produced an r-squared value of 0.9084. This r-squared value translates to an r-value of .950. This tells us that (in theory) 91% of a player's second half performance can be predicted from their first-half performance.
The real value in this is two-fold. It shows a consistency in the tracking, and helps us predict future performance.
The link between completing offensive-zone passes, getting shots through to the net, and producing points is obvious to most people. That said, establishing a mathematical link between the variables is an important step in validating the events being tracked here at Boucher Scouting.
