Debate Magazine

Commenter TS Claims to "Destroy" Kellermann Study

Posted on the 03 July 2014 by Mikeb302000
TS in comments:
Please. I destroyed you last time you brought up Kellerman. Don’t you remember how I brought up that the same study says you’re 4.4 times more likely to be murdered if you rent your home, rather than own? Then you go off saying it’s because they tend to have less income, etc. but this was right after you explained how Kellerman’s study isolated each factor from each other. Income was supposed to be removed from the gun ownership result, right? So why wasn’t it removed from renting? It was comical.
I'm always amused how gunloons claim to have debunked or disproved or "destroyed" scientific studies without having read or understood them.  It's a real talent.
In 1993, Dr. Arthur Kellerman (and several other co-authors) published a peer-reviewed article in the New England Journal of Medicine.  Among the findings was keeping a gun in the home carries a murder risk 2.7 times greater than not keeping one.  Naturally, such a conclusion runs counter to the gunloon religious tenet that guns prevent all crimes and bad happenings and make you more manly, etc.

Now did Dr. Kellermann and his co-authors use some kind of voodoo pseudo-statistical gimmickry to come up with his findings?  Hardly.  He used the exact same methodology used by epidemiologists the world over.  In fact, it's the same methodology used to ascertain that cigarette smoking cause cancer and other health ailments.

TS's comments regarding renters and income demonstrate he hasn't read or understood the study.  When researchers "control" for various factors--what they are doing is trying to isolate a certain factor from environmental and behavioral variables. For instance, health problems from smoking has to be controlled for certain variables such as genetics, exposure to occupational hazards, etc.

Dr. Kellermann's study showed that illicit drug use in a home carried the highest murder risk increase (5.7X).  Being a renter (4.4X), domestic violence (4.4X),a gun in the home (2.7X), and a household member with an arrest record (2.5X).  Where TS gets confused is that he "thinks"  these murder risks are a combination; they aren't.  IOW, if one has both illicit drug use and a gun in the house, the murder risk increases dramatically.  The more present variables, the greater increase in murder risk.


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