The chart above reflects the results of the WFAA / SurveyUSA Poll -- done between October 10th and 12th of a random sample of 638 likely voters in Texas, with a 4 point margin of error.
Texas has been a very red state for quite a while now -- a state where the GOP presidential candidate can count on winning without putting any real effort there. For example, George Bush carried the state by 22 points in 2000 and by 23 points in 2004. John McCain carried Texas by 13 points in 2008 and Mitt Romney carried it by 16 points in 2012. Those large margins were attained with little to no campaigning in the state (or much money spent on political advertising).
This year is different. Recent polls have shown Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by about 7 points -- and this latest poll has Trump ahead by only 4 points (within the margin of error of the poll). That shows just how bad a candidate Trump really is. He has taken a solid red state and turned it purple.
The odds are that Trump will probably win Texas, but not by much -- and if there is a very large turnout (which is possible), Hillary Clinton has an outside chance to win Texas. As a life-long Texas resident, I find this shocking -- but it looks like it may be true.
