I could not write this blog in China or Hong Kong. It would be erased from the web — and me along with it, thrown in jail.
But then, inexorably, “one country, two systems” translated into “Ha ha, we lied.”
Thus the massive pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong last year. Many feared the Beijing regime would ultimately respond as it did at Tiananmen Square in 1989, with a bloodbath. I never thought so; it wasn’t necessary. They could just do nothing and wear the protesters down with intransigence. (They were never going to dialog with Hong Kongers to reach some reasonable modus vivendi.)
Meantime, one might have imagined the protesters had some safety in numbers. The authorities couldn’t jail a million people, could they? Actually, they could — they did in Xinjiang.
Then Covid-19 seemed to resolve the situation. Fear of the virus, not violence, pretty much ended the protests. But that was not enough for the rulers in Beijing. In the spirit of Carthago delenda est, they now sprang on Hong Kong a draconian law criminalizing any and all political activism or criticism. This went way beyond what Hong Kongers had been protesting to forestall in the first place. Not even the territory’s toady local government was consulted. Now mainland authorities can reach into Hong Kong to enforce their law, in courts they create, operating in secret, with penalties up to life imprisonment. Indeed, victims can be whisked to China for trial where execution would be on the menu. And don’t imagine these would remotely resemble fair trials.
Some leading democracy advocates were arrested right away. Just to drive the point home, it was some of the most moderate and respected of them. The rest got the message. Silence descended. One youthful elected pro-democracy legislator, Nathan Law, fled the country.
The new law even applies to foreigners. Good thing I’ve visited China and Hong Kong before. I can’t now, I could be imprisoned for this blog post. I wouldn’t bet on the regime, pervasively riding herd on the internet, overlooking it.
The Beijing gang can act this way because there’s no constraint. That’s down to the mentality of the Chinese people.
Some of us had imagined that, as China became a richer, more cosmopolitan, educated, advanced modern society, that mentality would change. There’s no sign of that happening. Maybe the Beijing regime is right after all when it derides “Western values” of democracy and human rights as alien to Chinese culture. Maybe the Chinese really are that different from us. Maybe in a century that can change. I hope so. Our way is better.
Is there anything we can do? In the short term, not really. But that shouldn’t mean we just shrug and let Beijing believe there is no price at all for its conduct. Even if we can’t make it pay a tangible price, the Chinese regime actually cares a lot about international legitimacy and respect; and that can be stripped away. There should have been strong coordinated condemnation of China from the world’s democracies led by America. But unfortunately America no longer leads the world’s democracies. Trump has openly expressed idolization of Xi Jinping, particularly for his authoritarianism.
We do need to deal strongly with China, but that requires a sane, honest, responsible president, who reads briefing papers and actually knows what he’s doing.
