The following is from ChiefExecutive.net:
After a double-digit surge in optimism in the months following the November presidential election, confidence among America’s business community fell sharply the first week of March, according to Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index, fielded March 4 and 5.
CEOs’ rating of current business conditions in the U.S. fell 20 percent from January, from 6.3 to 5 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. This is the lowest level since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic shut down businesses around the world.
CEOs’ forecast for what those conditions will look like 12 months from now fell by an even greater margin—28 percent—from 7/10 in January to 5/10 in March. The last time CEOs’ outlook hit that low was November 2012.
Overall, only 39 percent of the more than 220 CEOs we surveyed now believe the business climate will improve this year, down 13 percentage points (or 25 percent) from 52 percent at the start of the year. Instead, 36 percent say they expect things will get worse, up from 20 percent in January (note: we did not field the survey in February 2025).
Asked about how they anticipate current events will affect the U.S. economy in general, 48 percent say they anticipate a recession or slowdown within the next six months.
The Trump administration’s gyrating tariff threats against Mexico and Canada are the most commonly cited reason for declining optimism. Three-quarters of those surveyed said they believe those tariffs, if imposed, will have negative effects on their respective industries. Rising geopolitical uncertainty, sweeping government layoffs and overall unpredictability for what comes next were all additional factors cited by CEOs we surveyed for their rising pessimism.
