Donald Trump was planning to run for re-election as the president who created a great economy. It was never true, but the current recession makes it impossible anyway. He is trying to force the economy back open, in the hope that it will quickly rebound. That's not going to happen. Unemployment is the highest it's been since the Great Depression (and may even go higher). And GDP is suffering as businesses struggle to reopen, and many may not be able to continue at all.So, what is Trump going to run on?
He's claimed to be the "ecology president", but that's a joke. After overturning the environmental accomplishments of President Obama, Trump has given us dirtier air and water. And his withdrawal from the Paris Accords has insured that global climate change has gotten worse.
In his first campaign, he promised to be the "healthcare president". But he's damaged the Affordable Care Act without any proposal to replace it, and continues a court battle to completely eliminate it. And his delaying and mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic has killed well over 100,000 Americans, and the death toll continues to grow.
In that campaign, he also said he would unify the country. But his words and actions have only divided the country.
So, I ask again, what is Trump going to run on?
It now looks like he's going to try to run as the "law and order" president. In recent days, he has ignored the complaints of protesters about police violence, and instead criticized those demonstrators -- calling governors weak for not dealing with them in a tougher and more authoritarian way. He wants to bring in the army and crush the demonstrations.
Will this work? I'm sure it will appeal to his racist followers. But this is not 1968 (when Nixon won as the "law and order" candidate).
In his Washington Post column, Max Boot gives us five reasons why Trump cannot succeed running that way:
First, white voters aren’t as numerous as they once were. The white, non-Hispanic share of the electorate declined from 89 percent in 1968 to 69 percent in 2016 — and it is expected to fall even further this year. The GOP base is shrinking.
Second, the evidence of police brutality is now incontestable thanks to cellphone videos. In the past, most whites gave police the benefit of the doubt. But even Rush Limbaugh and Jeanine Pirro have condemned the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis cop.
Third, voters aren’t as fearful of crime as they once were. The homicide rate increased by 54 percent between 1960 and 1970. By contrast, violent crime has been falling for the past quarter-century.
Fourth, Trump’s poll numbers are remarkably steady — he has been close to his current level of 43.1 percent approval, 53.3 percent disapprovalsince the start. If not even epochal events such as impeachment, a pandemic or an economic meltdown could not affect his support, it’s doubtful that the current unrest will do so.
Fifth, and most important, Trump is now the incumbent. He might imitate the law-and-order message of Wallace or Nixon in 1968, but, unlike them, he cannot blame the current president and promise to make everything better once he wins.
