The chart above shows the latest poll among Democrats (and Democratic leaners) in New Hampshire. It is the WBUR Poll -- done between September 12th and 15th of a random state sample of 404 likely voters, and has a margin of error of 4.9 points.
It verifies what a couple of other surveys have shown -- that Bernie Sanders has a lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire (although the 4 point lead in this poll is within the margin of error). It shows Sanders with 35%, Clinton with 31%, and Biden (who is not a candidate) with 14%.
But one thing I (as a Clinton supporter) found intriguing was the final two paragraphs of the statement issued with the release of the poll. They said:
Clinton makes up a good part of her deficit among independents with a strong showing among registered Democrats. Among partisans, she leads Sanders 40 percent to 34 percent.
This party split is not a new phenomenon, and echoes of the 2008 contest are unmistakable. That year, Clinton rode the strong support of Democratic voters to a surprise victory over Barack Obama, despite trailing in pre-election polls and losing the independent vote. If she remains in a strong position among Democrats this year, she has a shot at keeping the race close through primary day.
Can that be true? Does Hillary Clinton still have a chance to win the New Hampshire primary? While probably not likely, I think it is a definite possibility -- especially when you consider the results in the chart below. Note that 81% of the respondents said Clinton had the experience necessary to be president, while only 51% said that of Sanders.
And perhaps even more important, a majority of 56% say Clinton can beat the GOP's candidate in 2016, while only 29% believe she would not. The figures are far different for Sanders -- with only 34% believing he could beat the GOP candidate, while 48% believe he would lose. As the primary draws closer, it is possible that Democrats will decide to vote for the candidate they believe can win.
