THE politician most thrilled by Angela Merkel’s announcement on November 20th that she will run for a fourth term as German chancellor next autumn was Frauke Petry. The leader of the populist, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) termed it the ultimate campaign gift: the chance to run against the very chancellor who caused the “migrant chaos”.
In fact, Mrs Merkel remains the odds-on favorite. Her support sagged during last autumn’s refugee crisis but has recovered to 55%, up from 42% in August. Recent polls suggest that the only plausible coalition against her—a left-wing combination of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the ex-communist Left party—will not win a majority (see chart). Mrs Merkel, who took office in 2005, will probably stay through 2021, overtaking Helmut Kohl to become the longest-serving German chancellor (not counting Otto von Bismarck).
Before she became chancellor, Mrs Merkel…
