Bullish B Wave Low is Likely In

2:30 ET UPDATE

I spent some time with the bullish small cap analog. If you remember, we have 9 month cycle support under us in small caps. Small caps have been lagging. This would be a time for catch up. Here is the scenario that also accounts for the smaller October 17 cycle low:

Of course the FED could screw this up this week, but that is the price action play off this cycle low. Until the market is reversed, the market is bullish and not reversed.

SMALL CAP UPDATE (1:40 ET)

Just a quick update on small caps. Here is the bullish scenario laid out on small caps off this low:

As indicated in the orignal post below, we have a strong move coming off a cycle low. One does not want to be guessing that the market will reverse that move any time soon. Unless today's low is taken out, that September 17 cycle date should be honored, this is it, and we should be looking bullish. Until the market is reversed, the market is not reversed. IMHO.

EQUITIES The cycle date projected a September 17 low. Today's action suggests the anticipated low is in a smidgen early for that bullish B wave. The scenario calls for a significant move higher into October. Scenario.  This move is likely part of a larger correction that will produce another low around October 17 near the 125 SMA support line. 

On the other hand, no analysis is perfect and there is a chance that October low will not happen and this will just run to SPX 2080 from here. For now the market has reversed and is trending up and we can adjust later for the October low scenario when that move indicates the market trend is reversed again.

Here is the chart of the NYSE (the breakout is clearer on the NYSE chart right now). The stop on that move is recent lows:

Because of the divergences in the indexes I have been carrying two cycles this year. The first cycle low was August 5, which produced a significant cycle low a couple days later. The second cycle low is September 17, which may have just produced a very significant cycle low.

That is why as bearish as that weekly candle looked last week, I am not changing from the bullish B wave scenario until the market takes it away. Right now the market is acting very bullish and this could run to SPX 2080 very quickly from here.

CURRENCY AUDUSD has also performed as expected. AUDUSD Post. I am not ready to move the stop yet, but it looks like we nailed it. Here is the daily chart:
CLOSING There is always a bear path and a bull path. We cannot know which path our future will choose. As always, do your own due diligence, read the disclaimer, and make your own investment decisions. Peace, Om, SoulJester