Manchester Airport saw record numbers of travellers last month, and there was also widespread disruption after a power cut in the early hours of June 23. Photo: Mark Waugh/The Guardian
It's time. Summer vacation is here, and that sunny getaway booked in January is suddenly just around the corner. But as the first travel chaos stories of the season make headlines-a power outage here, a luggage meltdown there-clouds of anxiety can gather over daydreams of beach bliss.
In the rush to get abroad after the pandemic, the airline and travel industry discovered more and more things that could go wrong. In 2022, it came to the realization that there simply weren't enough staff to operate the flights being sold to get locked-down Britons off the island for short periods. This culminated in an unprecedented collapse in air travel last summer, affecting tens of thousands of passengers.
Related: Flights from two terminals at Manchester Airport cancelled after power outage
But the appetite for travel remains undiminished: Stansted and Manchester Airports saw record numbers in June, while Heathrow experienced its busiest day ever on June 30. As more flights take to the skies and airlines burden their assets with rapid turnarounds and relentless activity, the potential for knock-on cancellations and delays is huge.
As the lottery folks like to say, "it could happen to you," and it can: you're more likely to be stranded in a foreign airport or mysteriously find yourself without luggage than to win a pile of money. Fortunately, the odds are still slim. So what does 2024 look like-and what can airlines, or the nervous traveler, do to further minimize the risk?
Extreme weather has probably been the biggest headache for the travel industry so far, disrupting flights and threatening to ruin the summer in some way, whether it's a heatwave abroad, high water during holidays at home or an alarmingly early start to hurricane season.
That may have contributed to the surge in late bookings reported by holiday company Jet2 as people assess alternatives. The extreme heat that hit much of southern Europe last year did not appear to have a deterrent effect on bookings, easyJet said. Even the late-summer wildfires in Rhodes and warnings for tourists amid 40C heat in Greece in June are still being compared to the unusually wet and cold British summer.
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While holidaymakers may find something acceptable in between, the weather has added to the disruption to flights. Between the peaks and troughs, summer storms are a growing problem, with almost 48% more delays in Europe attributed to bad weather in 2023 than in 2022, according to Brussels-based air traffic control agency Eurocontrol.
British Airways was among those cancelling flights two weekends ago, with a diversion due to storms that saw two of its planes struck by lightning. Wet weather on the return journey is also having an impact, with air traffic controllers increasing the distances between planes to ensure safe landings, limiting the number of planes that can fly back.
Air traffic control has become a sore point for airlines more broadly, with strikes abroad and more recently problems caused by staff shortages at Gatwick Tower. Most unfortunately timed and inexplicable was a gremlin in the UK's air traffic control system that halted flights for hours over the August bank holiday: either due to a "black swan event", according to those at Nats (National Air Traffic Services), or "engineers at home in their jimmy-jams", according to the irate boss of Ryanair, Michael O'Leary.
Regardless, Nats has been working to ensure this combination of events never happens again, with Gatwick saying Nats "has successfully increased the number of controllers and assured us that there will be sufficient resources to deliver this year's busy summer schedules".
Staff shortages across multiple sectors within aviation were the main story of the difficult summer of 2022, with airports and airlines struggling to recruit sufficient security staff and baggage handlers in particular.
Manchester Airport saw some of the worst queues, and there were problems at Heathrow and elsewhere, with passengers also left stranded in security and check-in for long periods. EasyJet and BA were among those forced to cancel thousands of flights in advance to avoid disruption.
Related: E-gates back online after chaos at Heathrow and other UK airports
Extensive recruitment has filled those gaps. A Heathrow spokesman said: "We are fully staffed and as prepared as we can be." And airport bosses insist that many of those raw recruits are now fully trained, with a year's experience under their belts: at Manchester Airport last month, 97% of passengers passed through security in under 15 minutes, despite a power cut that caused a day of delays and cancellations.
The past two years have also seen a rise in airline strikes - from firefighters to tankers trying to follow overworked frontline staff in their bid to boost low wages amid the cost of living crisis. Recent disputes involving some Gatwick workers and Aer Lingus pilots have been resolved for now.
The impact on travellers is often lower than threatened - even last year's Border Force strikes delayed few people. But passengers may be cheered by the news that some of the most unpredictable and disruptive strikes, the feared wildcat actions by French air traffic controllers, are unlikely to occur this summer thanks to a generous settlement for the Paris Olympics.
The Olympics have also caused the EU to postpone its entry-exit system until at least October - now a headache for another summer, particularly on the ground for the Port of Dover and Eurostar, both of which are making extensive preparations. Dover has nevertheless warned travellers to expect "exceptionally busy" summer weekends this year due to the Olympics, which are expected to increase traffic by 30%, leading to two-hour processing times for ferries.
Back at the airports, expectations are high for a smoother year. Aviation insiders say some of the grim headlines are exaggerated. Referring to a recent story describing alleged chaos, one exasperated executive said: "That's a picture of an orderly line. That's what an airport looks like."
And these stories can come true: when there were staff shortages in 2022, many holidaymakers arrived even earlier and the terminals were already full before the check-in desks opened.
As one source at a major airline put it: "We've had some tough weekends. When something happens at the last minute, it's unpredictable... There are a lot of different challenging external factors. There are always going to be things that are out of our control."
To minimise disruption, easyJet and BA have made major investments in their control centres in Luton and Heathrow to respond faster and more quickly to events. More automation and AI are being used to assess crew and aircraft availability to quickly resolve the complex permutations of who and what can be redeployed where, if necessary.
While a new source of travel chaos is undoubtedly looming, the industry is confident that things are improving. Tim Alderslade, CEO of Airlines UK, said: "The summer season has started positively and despite the recent adverse weather conditions and air traffic control challenges across Europe, airlines are looking forward to another busy summer with millions of customers heading off on holiday."
Another airline executive urged: "Just make sure they get travel insurance."
