Entertainment Magazine

Box Office Projections: Lone Ranger Can’t Hit #1

Posted on the 02 July 2013 by Sirmac2 @macthemovieguy

1) Despicable Me 2- 70M  3 Day Weekend, 100M  5 Day Total

Tracking for this film is pretty high, and the grosses will be spread out over the 5 days. The first one opened to 56M. The sequel has the benefit of the first one becoming a bit of a “viral” hit, and the minions being pop culture icons. The second film will build on what the first started with, and will do amazing business over 5 days. The only thing standing that can hurt it is Monsters University, which has seen great grosses so far, and will continue to prove an excellent plan-B for families.

2) The Lone Ranger- 45M 3 Day Weekend, 70M 5 Day Total

Tracking is soft, and the production has had its share of controversies, from accused Native American racism, to the new concern of the film being too violent. Another thing to consider, is that the film is a western. The highest opening Western to date was Rango at 38M (and that also was an animated feature). Live action efforts like Cowboys and Aliens (36.4 opening), Wild Wild West (27.6M), and Shanghai Noon (15.6M) have opened during the summer and none have even broken 40M. Then again, that’s what people said about Pirates of the Caribbean before it opened. Disney is banking a lot on the formula that Johnny Depp and Gore Verbinski created with the Pirates franchise (Gore also directed Rango, and Depp voiced it). If any film is going to smash Western records, it’ll be this film. The bigger question is whether or not it will dethrone the highest grossing Western of all time, Dances With Wolves (184.2M). It will need to, to recoup that massive budget. Westerns typically don’t play well overseas. Cowboys and Aliens only made 74M at the foreign box office,  less than its domestic take.

3) Monsters University- 25M 3 Day Weekend, 210M Total

Monsters will continue to prove to be a force over the three day weekend, just a smaller one, as Despicable Me 2 will take a large chunk of the family audience.

4) The Heat- 23M 3 Day Weekend, 75M Total

I don’t expect The Heat to drop 50%. Word of mouth is strong, and neither of the two entries are targeting the same audience. It should continue to ride strong through the July 4th long weekend.

5) World War Z- 19M 3 Day Weekend, 150M Total

Word of mouth is surprisingly strong here, and people will still be heading to theatres to check out the film they’ve been hearing so much about.

6) White House Down- 11M 3 Day Weekend, 45M Total

White House Down might tumble a bit over 50% this weekend, as it doesn’t seem that many people are excited about the release. Added competition from Lone Ranger in the action marketplace won’t help.

7) Man Of Steel- 10M 3 Day Weekend, 265M Total

Man Of Steel will be losing some screens this week (something White House Down won’t have to worry about in Week 2) and will drop another 50%.

8) Kevin Hart: Laugh At My Pain- 7M 3 Day Weekend, 10M 5 Day Total

Kevin Hart is not to be trifled with. His last stand-up comedy film came out of nowhere, opened to 1.9 million (from less than 100 theatres), and went on to make 7.7 million before leaving theatres. Now in 800 theatres, and with a more present marketing campaign, Kevin Hart will have no problem passing the gross of the original.

9) This Is The End- 5M 3 Day Weekend, 82M Total

10) Now You See Me- 4M 3 Day Weekend, 110M Total


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