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Box Office Predictions: ‘Transcend’ To First Place?

Posted on the 18 April 2014 by Sirmac2 @macthemovieguy

1) Rio 2- 25M Weekend, 77M Weekend

The fact is that animated features rarely dip 50% in their second weekend. Most only dip 35-40%. It’s likely that Rio 2 will attain that 1st place finish that eluded it last weekend, especially since most of the other kids films have left theatres at this point. Only Bears is direct competition, and it isn’t much competition. Unless Transcendence can overcome its awful reviews, Rio 2 looks to win this weekend. Lets face it, it’s Easter, and this is a perfect film to see on Easter Sunday with the kids.

2) Captain America 2- 20M Weekend, 193M Total

The Captain keeps on trucking. A solid 50% dip this weekend would still leave it with 20M, and fighting for second place with Johnny Depp. It should cross 200M sometime over the mid-week, definitely no later than next Friday.

3) Transcendence- 19M Weekend, 19M Total

To be fair, my prediction is on the lower end of predictions this weekend for Transcendence. I think the audience is aware that Johnny Depp is not actually the star of the film, as the previews reveal he dies early in the trailer and is transferred into a computer. So Depp’s fans might be hesitant to see a film he might only kinda be in. That leaves a Rebecca Hall/Morgan Freeman film, and I’m not sure that film can win the weekend. The reviews have been pretty bad, so some people might hold off on seeing this opening weekend until they’ve heard more about it.

4) Heaven Is For Real- 16M Weekend, 24M Total

The Greg Kinnear starrer has been doing really well mid-week, opening at #1 on Wednesday. I suspect the grosses will feel a bit spread out, though it might get another bump on Sunday. The religious types that embraced God’s Not Dead are hesitant to embrace Heaven Is For Real because it is from a major studio and stars a major actor not known for his Christian beliefs. Still, 16M ain’t bad, and should be considered a success by any means for a Greg Kinnear vehicle.

5) A Haunted House 2- 14M Weekend, 14M Total

The first one opened in January, when less competition was around to stop it from doing well. I’m guessing the sequel won’t do quite as well as the first, but should still find its audience this weekend. This franchise is relatively inexpensive, so a 14M opening might even be enough to trigger a 3rd Haunted House entry.

6) Oculus- 7M Weekend, 23M Total

Oculus had good reviews, but couldn’t use those to get a larger opening in the vein of Insidious, Sinister, or The Conjuring. Still, it is unlikely to drop 50%, even if Haunted House overlaps with the target audience a bit.

7) Bears- 6.5M Weekend, 6.5M Total

The last Disneynature film, Chimpanzee, actually was the highest opener at 10.6M, but both African Cats and Oceans opened to 6M. I’m thinking Bears is facing some hard competition from Rio 2, and will have a tough time doing Chimpanzee’s business. Chimpanzee opened at a time when there was no real competition for kids in the marketplace.

8) Draft Day- 6M Weekend, 19M Total

Kevin Costner’s football flick failed to find an audience last weekend. Still, it remains to be the only comedy targeting an adult audience, and reviews weren’t terrible, so I doubt it will drop 50% this weekend either.

9) Divergent- 4M Weekend, 132M Total

Divergent continues to push its fanbase to come and see the film before it leaves theatres via social media. I don’t think it will drop 50% this weekend, so it should hold into the Top 10.

10) God’s Not Dead- 4M Weekend, 47M Total

The final two slots in the top 10 were tough, because Noah could still wind up in the Top 10, as it is likely to make close to 4M also this weekend. God’s Not Dead has seen really small dips week-to-week, and seems likely to also retain a Top 10 spot along with Divergent. Noah has dropped over 50% every weekend so far, and it is likely Noah will drop just enough to fall out of the Top 10. God’s Not Dead has had an incredible run so far. I think I originally predicted it wouldn’t even make the top 10 its first weekend, and it will go on to break 50M domestically, so it is clear that the Christian fanbase can create surprise hits out of the most unlikely films. Fun fact: God’s Not Dead is the top grossing film that Freestyle Releasing has EVER released. It has actually had that title for quite some time, as the previous holder was An American Haunting at 16M. Freestyle has only had 3 films, prior to God’s Not Dead, surpass the 10M mark, which is why so many people wrote God’s Not Dead off as being off the radar.

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