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Box Office Predictions: The X-Men Take on ‘Maleficent’

Posted on the 29 May 2014 by Sirmac2 @macthemovieguy

1) Maleficent- 60M Weekend, 60M Total

Sorry. My title makes it seem like there’s a battle being waged this weekend, but Maleficent is going to win. It’s being marketed as a Disney title, and there just isn’t anything in the marketplace for kids right now. There hasn’t been anything big since Rio 2, so kids are HUNGRY for something. Adults will also choose this film, hoping that because Angelina Jolie is in it that it won’t be so “little kiddie”, and be more like Oz. Beware that the film only has a 53% on rotten tomatoes, so audiences may be divided once they’ve seen the film, which could hamper word of mouth (and growth over the weekend).

2) X-Men: Days Of Future Past- 40M Weekend, 174M Total

X-Men opened so big that a 50%+ drop is basically set in stone. Positive word  of mouth should keep that drop below 60% though, unlike Godzilla and Amazing Spider-Man 2. Plus, the new competition isn’t targeting X-Men’s core “action” audience. X-Men has been playing well mid-week also, which hints that a solid second weekend is in store.

Movie Review: X-Men: Days Of Future Past

3) A Million Ways To Die In The West- 35M Weekend, 35M Total

Not the only comedy in the marketplace, Seth Macfarlane’s R rated romp will open well, but not extravagantly high. Mixed reviews (36% on Rotten Tomatoes) won’t help, and a broad cast without any A-listers (unlike Mark Wahlberg who headlined Ted) isn’t going to help either. There’s a chance it might even fall short of the 35M, as audiences will be more entranced by Angelina Jolie than Seth Macfarlane.

4) Godzilla- 15M Weekend, 178M Total

Another 50% drop for Godzilla, especially since the Top 3 are mopping up a lot of cash.

Movie Review: Godzilla
5) Neighbors- 9M Weekend, 131M Total

Even with A Million Ways opening, Seth Rogen has kept himself in the public eye enough over the past week to prevent any kind of steep drop. He’s smoked a joint with Snoop Dogg, and he took a critic to task for saying that his films provoke mass shootings. Plus, Neighbors began to pull ahead of Blended mid-week, so it should keep up that trend over the weekend.

6) Blended- 8.5M Weekend, 30M Total

I doubt the film drops 50%, probably 45% is more likely. Still, Sandler should be disappointed by this gross. Maybe he should host SNL after all…

7) Million Dollar Arm- 4.5M Weekend, 29M Total

Counterprogramming should continue to work, and another 35% dip will occur.

8) The Amazing Spider-Man 2- 4M Weekend, 193M Total

Slowly creeping to 200M…

Movie Review: Amazing Spider-Man 2
9) The Other Woman- 2.5M Weekend, 82M Total
Movie Review: The Other Woman

10) Rio 2- 1.5M Weekend, 125M Total

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