1) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire- 70M 3 Day Weekend, 105M 5 Day Weekend, 275M Total
Sundance fave The Hunger Games, starring unknown actress Jennifer Lawrence, opened to a surprising #1 last week… oh alright. I’ll retire my snark. Catching Fire has some competition this week from Frozen, but since it opened to a record breaking number last week, even a harsh fall to 70M would put Catching Fire way above the Disney pic.
2) Frozen- 45M 3 Day Weekend, 70M 5 Day Weekend, 60M Total
Frozen is tracking really well, getting really solid reviews, and will enter into a field that is starved of family attention. This weekend is traditionally really kind to Disney movies. Wreck It Ralph managed 49M, Tangled managed 48M. Both films had either a Harry Potter or a Twilight to face off against. Hunger Games will lap up a bit more money, but Frozen will still make a nice dent in the box office.
3) Black Nativity- 12M Weekend, 20M 5 Day Weekend, 20M Total
Once you get beyond the top two films, everything else is just doing OK business. The holiday themed entry is a musical (Burlesque and Rent both underperformed on Thanksgiving weekend), and will face competition from other films in the marketplace. Like The Best Man Holiday.
4) Thor: The Dark World- 10M Weekend, 16M 5 Day Weekend, 187M Total
Thor will continue to do good business heading into the weekend. Good reviews will keep Thor in play.
5) The Best Man Holiday- 9M Weekend, 15M 5 Day Weekend, 69M Total
Best Man will continue to please audiences, even with Black Nativity entering in.
6) Homefront- 8M Weekend, 12M 5 Day Weekend, 12M Total
If you honestly think Jason Statham and James Franco are going to open this movie to a lot of money, then you’re crazy. Faster opened to 8.5M in 2010, and I think Homefront will mirror that.
7) Delivery Man- 4M Weekend, 7M 5 Day weekend, 17M Total
After flopping upon entry, Delivery Man will continue to drop. It has proven to not be worthy of being called “counter programming”.
8) Free Birds- 4M Weekend, 7M 5 Day Weekend, 57M Total
Free Birds is literally a movie about Thanksgiving. It should perform well this weekend.
9) Last Vegas- 3M Weekend, 5M 5 Day Weekend, 55M Total
10) Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, or 12 Years A Slave
One of these three films will round out the top 10. These three films will probably also account for around 20 Oscar nominations combined.
