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Box Office Predictions: ‘Non Stop’ Track to #1

Posted on the 27 February 2014 by Sirmac2 @macthemovieguy

1) Non-Stop- 30M Weekend, 30M Total

Non-Stop is definitely on track to dethrone The Lego Movie at the top spot. It even has a mediocre, not terrible RT score of 48%, which is almost on par with Neeson’s last February opening, Unknown. Unknown opened after Neeson had one Taken behind him. Now Neeson has become a 1st quarter superstar with films like Taken, Unknown, and The Grey all doing decent numbers. For this outing, he’s paired up with Julianne Moore, which gives him a solid #2 to bank off of. With the rest of the films in the marketplace doing kinda dismal box office, it’s hard to believe that Non Stop won’t crush its competition.

2) The Lego Movie- 18M Weekend, 206M Total

The Lego Movie will smash past 200M this weekend, easily. It remains a top draw for audiences of all ages, and interestingly also features the voice talents of Liam Neeson. The Wind Rises is a PG-13 anime,and shouldn’t pull anything from Lego Movie’s core audience, and is opening on substantially less screens than past Studio Ghibli movies.

3) Son Of God- 16M Weekend, 16M Total

Religious films can sometimes be runaway hits, but not a film that is essentially a clip-show. Even if Son Of God, which features no stars, attracts a huge following in its demo, a chunk of those people likely already own The Bible miniseries on Bluray, and won’t feel the need to see an edited version of that work. Son Of God looks to attract the fraction of that demo that isn’t aware this is a clip show, or didn’t see the original miniseries. It should still fare pretty well, given the fact that it is a chop job.

4) 3 Days To Kill- 7M Weekend, 22M Total

Kevin Costner’s film faces direct competition from Non-Stop and should feel that hit this weekend.

5) Pompeii- 5M Weekend, 18M Total

I can’t see Pompeii holding strong this weekend. A 50% drop to 5M is probably in order.

6) Robocop- 5M Weekend, 51M Total

A similar drop for Robocop should put it neck-and-neck with Pompeii.

7) The Monuments Men- 4.5M Weekend, 64M Total

8) About Last Night- 3.5M Weekend, 43M Total

9) Ride Along- 3M Weekend, 128M Total

10) Frozen- 3M Weekend, 389M Total

Also opening this week:

The Wind Rises expands into 450 screens. It made an OK 14K per screen last week, and will probably do around 4-5K per screen this week (based on Oscar buzz, and a low screen count). It could walk away with around 2M, which won’t be enough for a Top 10 finish.

Stalingrad is doing a 3D launch in 300 screens, but most people will avoid the international film. An opening weekend gross of about a million is likely.

Forest Whitaker has something called Repentance opening on about 150 screens. If you were aware of this release, congratulations. If this movie made 100K this weekend, I would be shocked (yes that means I think it will have a horrific PSA).

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