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Box Office Predictions: No New Films Will Topple ‘Suicide’, ‘Party’

Posted on the 17 August 2016 by Sirmac2 @macthemovieguy

Here’s the thing… school is starting to get back in session, and we have some very divisive films leading the box office. Suicide Squad had a huge fall last week, and is bound to drop another +50% this weekend. It could manage 20M for the weekend, but probably not much more. Sausage Party is also getting mixed word of mouth, with some people loving it, and others writing it off. Some experts are pointing out that it is “holding up” mid-week, but so did Suicide Squad before its 67% drop. I think Sausage Party is in store for a +50% dip as well.

Pete’s Dragon won’t hit 50%, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it was as low as 30%, and ended up higher than 14M. It’s possible that more families will catch this, having missed an opportunity last weekend. It does face new competition from Kubo, but I think Kubo is going to struggle to find audiences. Yes, it’s from the people who made Coraline, but those films aren’t huge moneymakers domestically. They’re prestige films, and 13M for Kubo is a solid opening.

The other two new releases, I’m betting will tank. Honestly, until I saw other predictions, I was thinking War Dogs was aiming for 5-6M, and Ben Hur was 8-10M. Apparently tracking has War Dogs around 13M-14M and Ben Hur around 12-13M. I think both of those predictions are insane. War Dogs is following in the footsteps of Rock The Kasbah and Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, and those were ignored. Jonah Hill is kind of a draw, but Miles Teller has not proven himself enough as a bankable star. Ben Hur looks silly, has no stars (except Morgan Freeman in a supporting role), and can’t decide if it wants to be hardcore, or Christian. It is grasping for straws, and this 100M epic is going to be one of the biggest flops of the year.

That leaves more money for people still looking to catch up on Jason Bourne, Bad Moms, and The Secret Life Of Pets, which will all see slight declines again this week.

For the three new films, Kubo has an outstanding 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, while War Dogs is barely positive at 62%, and Ben Hur sits at 36%.

1) Suicide Squad- 20M Weekend, 264M Total
2) Sausage Party- 16M Weekend, 68M Total
3) Pete’s Dragon- 14M Weekend, 47M Total
4) Kubo- 13M Weekend, 13M Total
5) War Dogs- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
6) Ben Hur- 9M Weekend, 9M Total
7) Jason Bourne- 9M Weekend, 143M Total
8) Bad Moms- 8M Weekend, 86M Total
9) The Secret Life Of Pets- 6.5M Weekend, 347M Total
10) Star Trek Beyond- 4.5M Weekend, 147M Total
11) Florence Foster Jenkins- 4M Weekend, 14M Total

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