Opening on Halloween weekend is quite a struggle. The last time Halloween was on a weekend was when Saw 3D opened to 22M in 2010. That year, it was on Sunday. The year before, it was on a Saturday, and This Is It was the #1 movie with 23.2M. Everyone else avoided the weekend with wide releases. Paranormal Activity repeated with 16.3M in Week 6. But the last time Halloween was on a Friday? The number one movie was a holdover, High School Musical 3, with only 15.3M. Zack and Miri Make A Porno could only grab 10M, and The Haunting Of Molly Hartley died in 5th with 5.4M.
So this weekend, we have Nightcrawler (starring Jake Gyllenhaal) and Before I Go To Sleep (starring Nicole Kidman), opening against the 10th Anniversary Re-Release of Saw.
1) Nightcrawler- 10M Weekend, 10M Total
In what will definitely be a very slow weekend, Jake Gyllenhaal will benefit from the fact that most people don’t go to the movies on Halloween, and then after Halloween, what’s the point of seeing Ouija? Good reviews will bring some interest to this project, but for my money, it’s been under advertised, and Jake Gyllenhaal isn’t a big draw on his own. But, he might land a #1 opening this weekend because it’s so incredibly slow.
2) Ouija- 8M Weekend, 33M Total
Ouija hasn’t even been holding up mid-week. It’s been losing to Fury, which it handily defeated over the weekend, as well as John Wick. I’m betting on a large drop (60%) for Ouija.
3) Fury- 7.5M Weekend, 59M Total
Brad Pitt’s war epic should see a small decline, likely pulling ahead of John Wick (and possibly even Ouija if it does worse).
4) John Wick- 7M Weekend, 27M Total
The cinemascore wasn’t good enough to suggest this won’t drop 50%, especially when Nightcrawler is targeting the same general demographic.
5) Gone Girl- 7M Weekend, 135M Total
Gone Girl should still hold well. Word of mouth is very strong, and it’s the buzziest film in the marketplace right now.
6) Book Of Life- 6.5M Weekend, 38M Total
With no new kids films in the marketplace, this shouldn’t get hit too hard.
6) Before I Go To Sleep- 6M Weekend, 6M Total
Nicole Kidman’s latest is under marketed, and could easily be forgotten about. Plus, it’s releasing in under 2,000 screens, which is making it even harder to be a breakout. The last time that Nicole Kidman starred in a major wide release was 2008’s Australia. She’ll be lucky to get 6M this weekend.
7) St Vincent- 4.5M Weekend, 16M Total
Basically, the only comedy in the marketplace. With a really good cinemascore, and zero competition, I think St Vincent will hold up pretty well this weekend.
8) Alexander- 4M Weekend, 51M Total
9) Saw Re-Release- 3M Weekend, 3M Total
The Saw re-release is getting a nice push. For 3M to happen, it only needs a (rather sad) 1,621 per screen average, which is equivalent to what The Judge and The Equalizer pulled in last weekend. It’s possible.
10) The Judge- 2.5M Weekend, 39M Total
Speaking of The Judge, it should pull ahead of The Best Of Me and Dracula Untold and round out the Top 10.
