Even though there are a lot of new releases this weekend, they all are projected to suck, and none of them are going to remotely challenge The Fate Of The Furious for 1st place. Hell, I’m not even sure they can beat The Boss Baby for 2nd place.
The films with the best shot of beating at least The Boss Baby are Unforgettable and Free Fire. Unforgettable is one of those super formulaic films that looks like we’ve seen it a thousand times before, but this time stars Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson. Neither Heigl or Dawson are huge draws, and the film hasn’t been screened for critics, which is never a good sign. Let’s be honest and say this is not a film critics are going to get behind, so this film is going to struggle to find an audience this weekend. Free Fire has a different struggle, where Brie Larson is the biggest draw in the film, however critics are giving it a solid 78% right now. Still, Larson is largely unproven as a box office draw. Yes, she was just in Kong: Skull Island, but that film would have opened big with or without her.
There are three other releases looking to pull some eyes, DisneyNature’s Born In China, The Promise, and Phoenix Forgotten. None of those films will even hit 5M this weekend. I went with a top 12 because I think Gifted/Get Out/Lost City Of Z are battling it out for that last spot.
By Sunday, Beauty and the Beast should be set comfortably at #10 on the All Time Domestic box office chart. It is only 4M behind Star Wars right now, so it should pass that by Friday, and the rest is being put toward getting to #9, which is currently held by another Star Wars entry, The Phantom Menace, which sits at 474M. The last film it will get to pass is Finding Dory at #8, with 486M. I don’t think it can get any higher than that on the All Time chart. On the Worldwide chart, Beauty and the Beast currently sits at #22, but should comfortably finish in the low-to-mid teens.
Next weekend, The Circle, Sleight, and How To Be A Latin Lover all open. I’m surprised the tracking on Sleight is so weak, but it is. It looks like The Circle is way out in front.
1) The Fate Of The Furious- 45M Weekend, 176M Total
2) The Boss Baby- 11M Weekend, 138M Total
3) Beauty and the Beast- 9M Weekend, 471M Total
4) Unforgettable- 7M Weekend, 7M Total
5) Free Fire- 6M Weekend, 6M Total
6) Going In Style- 4M Weekend, 31M Total
7) Born In China- 4M Weekend, 4M Total
8) Smurfs: The Lost Village- 3.5M Weekend, 32M Total
9) The Promise- 3M Weekend, 3M Total
10) Gifted- 2M Weekend, 8M Total
11) Get Out- 2M Weekend, 171M Total
12) The Lost City of Z- 2M Weekend, 2M Total
