1) 2 Guns- 35M Weekend, 35M Total
Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg are both actors who can generally open a movie. Denzel’s last film, Flight, opened to 24.9M in November, and it was much less accessible than 2 Guns. A drama about an alcoholic pilot? Washington also opened Safe House to 40.9M last year. Neither of those films opened in the summer. Wahlberg opened Pain and Gain to 20.2M in April, Broken City died with 8.2M, and Ted landed 54.4M last summer. His most impressive opening was Contraband, which came out of nowhere to open to 24.3M in January 2012. 2 Guns has been tracking well, and the pairing of the two should prove to do well at the box office. Plus, it is a really slow week. The only other new film is targeting the complete opposite audience.
2) The Smurfs 2- 32M Weekend, 42M Total
The original Smurfs film opened to 35M in 2011, and ended up with 142.6M domestically and 421.1M worldwide. The Smurfs 2 actually opens on Wednesday, which will spread out the money a bit more. So over the Friday-Sunday period, it might lose to 2 Guns, but it will gross more money because of the extra two days. The Smurfs 2 tracking isn’t through the roof, and the marketplace is saturated with kidpics (with Planes coming right around the corner, and tracking strong).
3) The Wolverine- 25M Weekend, 100M Total
The Wolverine has good word of mouth, and likely won’t completely fall apart in week 2. A drop of a little more than 50% would leave The Wolverine with 25M for the weekend, and around 100M for a grand total.
4) The Conjuring- 14M Weekend, 102M Total
The Conjuring dipped only 46% last weekend, and will probably dip about the same this weekend as 2 Guns is in a different genre. People keep showing up to see what all the fuss is about.
5) Despicable Me 2- 11M Weekend, 320M Total
Despicable Me 2 slid only 34% last weekend, and continues to be the leading choice for families. It will get hit a bit harder by The Smurfs 2 than it was by Turbo, but it will still continue strong into the Top 5.
6) Turbo- 9M Weekend, 70M Total
Turbo slid about the same as Despicable Me 2 did, and will probably do the same again.
7) Grown Ups 2- 7M Weekend, 112M Total
The Adam Sandler pic hasn’t been dropping hard every week. With no new comedy entries, it will likely just slide carefully down again this week.
8) Red 2- 5M Weekend, 43M Total
Red 2 didn’t dip 50%, and won’t dip 50% here either. A lot of people didn’t rush out to see this, and are catching up on it now.
9) The Heat- 4.5M Weekend, 148M Total
The comedy hit just keeps on chugging.
10) Fruitvale Station- 4M Weekend, 11M Total
It should expand a bit more again this weekend, and with great reviews and great word of mouth, Fruitvale Station could continue to be a Top 10 player this weekend.
11) Pacific Rim- 4M Weekend, 90M Total
12) RIPD- 3M Weekend, 28M Total
13) The Way Way Back- 2.5M Weekend, 12M Total
14) Monsters University- 2M Weekend, 258M Total
15) World War Z- 2M Weekend, 195M Total
I’m not sure if The To Do List is planning a major expansion this week. The 2,672 per screen average it netted on its debut was below The Way Way Back and Fruitvale Station, in terms of “not quite wide” releases. It might expand a little, but I don’t think it can crack the top 10 unless it goes over at least 1,500 screens. If it doesn’t expand, it won’t be in the Top 15, which is why I didn’t list it.
