Entertainment Magazine

Box Office Predictions: Can Cap Three-Peat?

Posted on the 18 May 2016 by Sirmac2 @macthemovieguy

Captain America faces some truly legit competition this weekend from Neighbors 2 and Angry Birds. Both are tracking in the 40M range, with Cap landing just above it. If either film breaks out, Cap could lose his #1 spot. I’m putting them really close, because they are, and anything could happen. Captain America: Civil War dropped 59% last weekend, which is promising. It’s third weekend drop won’t be nearly that high, and could possibly be in the 45-50% range.

The first Neighbors opened to 49M two years ago. Does Neighbors 2 have that kind of life in it? Yes and no. When Neighbors opened, its only competition was the second weekend of Amazing Spider-Man 2. In fact, only those two films made more than 10M that weekend. Here, there are 5 films projected above 10M, with three of them likely to make north of 30, and possibly even 40. It’s feasible that all three overperform and end up in the 40-45M range. Neighbors 2 doesn’t quite have a clear shot that it did before.

Angry Birds doesn’t really have a comp. Some people have used The LEGO Movie as a comp, which opened to 69M, but that opened in February and not May. The closest comp I can come up with is Over The Hedge, which wasn’t already an established franchise, and opened to 38M. Angry Birds has fans because of the mobile game, but we aren’t really that familiar with the characters yet.

For both new entries, reviews are in the middle. Neighbors 2 is slightly positive right now with 65%, while Angry Birds is slightly rotten at 56%. The weeks other new release, The Nice Guys, should benefit most from reviews and word of mouth. Prior to opening, Nice Guys was tracking soft, with a 10-12M opening, which was virtually the same range as Money Monster. With the reviews coming in, Nice Guys is now projected to overperform, closer to the 14-16M range. It still won’t be a huge threat to the top 3, but it will be taking some eyes away. Last weekends Money Monster is most likely to be hurt by Nice Guys, as they’re both targeting the adult crowd.

The following weekend, Cap will finally lose his #1 spot to X-Men Apocalypse, which is not getting good reviews, but should still open well. The other major film opening is Alice Through The Looking Glass, which has some pretty bad reviews too, and hovers at 27% on Rotten Tomatoes. Disney’s marketing machine has tapered off a bit on Alice. Maybe they smell a flop coming? After three 300M hits in Zootopia, Jungle Book, and Captain America, Disney was bound to put something out that didn’t quite live up to expectations. No one is that lucky. They’ll have another hit in Finding Dory in June though so don’t feel too bad for them.

1) Captain America: Civil War- 40M Weekend, 352M Total
2) Neighbors 2- 39M Weekend, 39M Total
3) Angry Birds- 38M Weekend, 38M Total
4) The Nice Guys- 15M Weekend, 15M Total
5) The Jungle Book- 11M Weekend, 327M Total
6) Money Monster- 8M Weekend, 28M Total
7) The Darkness- 2.5M Weekend, 9M Total
8) Mothers Day- 2M Weekend, 32M Total
9) Zootopia- 2M Weekend, 334M Total
10) Tne Huntsman- 1.5M Weekend, 47M Total


You Might Also Like :

Back to Featured Articles on Logo Paperblog

These articles might interest you :

  • The Verdi Project: Stiffelio

    Verdi Project: Stiffelio

    Verdi battles the censors with an opera about religion. by Paul J. Pelkonen Preacher man: José Cura as Stiffelio at the Metropolitan Opera.Photo by Ken Howard... Read more

    The 22 April 2018 by   Superconductor
    CULTURE, THEATRE & OPERA
  • I Still Managed To Shop These In Mauritius!

    Still Managed Shop These Mauritius!

    Travelling to Mauritius? Thinking of what you should buy? Here is a list that SSU contributor Sakshi bought and she has some honest take on Mauritius markets.... Read more

    The 22 April 2018 by   Shoppingaholic
    HAIR & BEAUTY, LIFESTYLE, SHOPPING
  • Food Review: Katz’s Delicatessen, New York City

    Katz’s katzenjammer sandwich Katz’s deli in the lower East side of New York comes recommended by most guidebooks and travel websites, and someone we know said... Read more

    The 22 April 2018 by   Emma
    DESTINATIONS, DINING OUT, FOOD & DRINK
  • Healthy Lunch Salad!

    Healthy Lunch Salad!

    Yesterday, I invented this lovely healthy lunch or dinner. I even eat it like breakfast this morning! So good, So yummy! You can eat it just like this but I wil... Read more

    The 22 April 2018 by   Sophies Foodie
    FOOD & DRINK, RECIPES, VEGETARIAN & VEGAN
  • Skincare Empties #8

    Skincare Empties

    Hi All,According to the Instagram polls am posting an empties post first. I am so into powder cleansers that I ended up using two of them both are my favorites. Read more

    The 22 April 2018 by   Skincarevilla
    HAIR & BEAUTY
  • The Most Important Mission Of The Modern Mormon Church

    Most Important Mission Modern Mormon Church

    Previously: A Plea Unto Every Latter-day Saint On the shelf directly behind me is a hefty Dictionary of Early Christian Beliefs, which I like to browse now and... Read more

    The 22 April 2018 by   Rockwaterman
    SOCIETY, SPIRITUALITY
  • 6 Ways To Be A Business Leader As Well As A Developer

    Ways Business Leader Well Developer

    Almost every entrepreneur starts their journey by developing a solution, based on their idea of a new technology or required service. These idea and developer... Read more

    The 22 April 2018 by   Martin Zwilling
    BUSINESS, CAREER

Magazine