1) The Internship- 30M weekend, 30M total
Everyone in the industry swears this film is tracking at 20M. I have a hard time believing that Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson’s reteaming is that low. But, I guess, I can’t go crazy and say 50M. I’m predicting a solid 30M. The film is PG-13, so grosses won’t be limited. The Internship screened on Saturday for audiences, which is a giant show of faith that audiences are really responding to the film. They’ve avoided showing it to critics, but it doesn’t seem like a critics choice film. Vince Vaughn’s last summer effort, The Watch, did poorly with 12M. However, he did manage to get Couples Retreat to open with 34M in October, and Wedding Crashers opened to 33M. Owen Wilson’s last film was the dismal The Big Year, which died with 3.2 million. He hasn’t had a big hit since Marley and Me. The Internship could really help reboot his career.
2) Fast and Furious 6- 19M weekend, 200M total
Fast and Furious should hit 200M this weekend. Keep in mind, it did drop 63% from week 1 to week 2, so another steep decline should be in store. I’m guessing, with the lack of direct competition, and the poor performance of After Earth, that the drops will slow. The biggest competition is The Purge, which could maybe sneak past it, but I’m thinking probably not.
3) The Purge- 18M weekend, 18M total
The biggest star in the film is Ethan Hawke, who isn’t really getting billing. The preview seems to want to bill the film as a horror, but the intruders are human, so it will be tough to sell a horror film without some demonic force to the masses. The past couple hits, Insidious and Sinister come to mind, have been following a set model. The Purge is trying to attract the same audience The Strangers did back in 2008. That film managed to open to 20M, but had way more buzz leading into it. I think it will fall a little short of that. Hawke’s own Sinister did 18M in October, so we’ll go with that.
4) Now You See Me- 15M weekend, 50M Total
With mixed reviews, and an A- cinemascore, it will be interesting to see how Now You See Me holds up this week. A 50% drop to 15M could be in store.
5) Epic- 10M weekend, 80M total
Epic won’t have the same hard drops other films are having because it is the only kids film in the marketplace. As parents are finding their way to the theatres, the film most likely that they’ll be seeing is Epic. It has two more weeks before Monsters University comes out, and crushes it.
6) After Earth- 10M weekend, 43M total
7) Star Trek Into Darkness- 9M weekend, 193M total
8) The Hangover Pt 3- 8M weekend, 100M total
9) Iron Man 3- 5M weekend, 393 total
10) The Great Gatsby- 4M weekend, 134M total
