In order to give the team the best chance to win, while limiting even-strength scoring-chances against, the Montreal Canadiens top-6 defensemen to start the playoffs must include Francis Bouillon over Douglas Murray.
Granted, Murray has played some of his best hockey this season against the Tampa Bay Lightning. But, the fact that Bouillon's numbers are even better than Murray's against the lightning, only reinforces number 55 as the logical choice.
This would make the Habs starting-6 in game 1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning:
- PK Subban
- Josh Gorges
- Andrei Markov
- Alexei Emelin
- Mike Weaver
- Francis Bouillon
EVEN-STRENGTH AND SHORT-HANDED RATIOS
Murray has produced the only 2.14 successful plays at even-strength for every 1 successful play. This is the lowest ratio among Habs defensemen, and well below the average produced by Habs d-men of 2.77 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.
Murray's ratio of successful plays to failed plays in the defensive-zone is a below-average 2.58, while Bouillon's is an above-average 3.36.
The numbers included here only reflect the games played since the Olympic break
Murray's short-handed ratio is substantially-higher than Bouillon. Not playing Murray would give a bigger SH workload to Gorges and Weaver, and force Emelin onto the second SH d-pairing; unless Subban is used to kill penalties.
EVEN-STRENGTH SCORING-CHANCES AGAINST PER-MINUTE PLAYED
Only Jarred Tinordi has been directly responsible for more even-strength scoring-chances against per-minute played than Murray. For comparison's sake, only Gorges has been directly responsible for fewer scoring-chances against per-minute than Bouillon.
ES SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-POSSESION PLAYS
Murray and Tinordi have produced the fewest successful puck-possession plays in the offensive-zone per-minute played.
ES DEFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE
In terms of defensive-zone puck-possession success-rate, only Tinordi has a lower defensive-zone puck-possession success-rate than Murray's success-rate of 67.3%. As for Bouillon, only Gorges has a better success-rate than Bouillon's 77.6%.
Expressing these numbers as turnover-rates; Murray has turned the puck over 32.7% of the time he has attempted a play with possession in the defensive-zone, while Bouillon has turned the puck over 22.4% of the time he has made a possession play in the d-zone.
ES DEFENSIVE-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE
Focusing on those possession success-rates solely in terms of passing, we find that Murray has been successful with 73.3% of his passes in the d-zone, while Bouillon has been successful with 80.7%.
ES SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-PLAYS IN THE D-ZONE PER-MINUTE PLAYED
Murray produces more successful defensive-touches (plays removing possession from the opposition) per-minute played than any other Montreal defensemen. The main reason for the high number goes back to Murray's d-zone puck-possession success-rate. Murray's inability to successfully move the puck out of the defensive-zone forces him (as well as any other player on the ice) to play defense far more often than the Habs other d-men.
ES DEFENSIVE SUCCESS-RATE IN THE DEFENSIVE-ZONE
In terms of success-rate we find that Bouillon has actually been successful with a higher-percentage of his attempts to remove puck-possession from the opposition in the defensive-zone than any other Montreal defenseman.
ES PERCENTAGE OF PLAYS IN THE D-ZONE THAT ARE DEFENSIVE
This graph shows the percentage of each Habs player's defensive-zone events that are defensive. Expressed differently, this is the percentage of all d-zone events that are spent attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition, rather than with possession.
This graph reinforces our previous point about the impact of Murray's high turnover-rate in the defensive-zone, as Murray engages in a higher percentage of defensive-events that any other Habs defenseman.
Playing Bouillon over Murray is the best move going into the playoffs. For every potential positive impact Murray can have, the bottom line is that number 6 simply isn't efficient enough moving the puck out of the defensive-zone; directly resulting in too many opposition scoring-chances.
Bouillon also has both a higher corsi-for%, and a higher d-zone start% than Murray. Over the course of an entire game (15 ES minutes played), Murray averages 2 more defensive-zone turnovers, and 1 more scoring-chance against than Bouillon.
In the playoffs, 1 more scoring-chance could make all the difference.
